(Machine) Learning What Policies Value
Not on the map. Why?
Abstract (arXiv)
When a policy prioritizes one person over another, is it because they benefit more, or because they are preferred? This paper develops a method to uncover the values consistent with observed allocation decisions. We use machine learning methods to estimate how much each individual benefits from an intervention, and then reconcile its allocation with (i) the welfare weights assigned to different people; (ii) heterogeneous treatment effects of the intervention; and (iii) weights on different outcomes. We demonstrate this approach by analyzing Mexico's PROGRESA anti-poverty program. The analysis reveals that while the program prioritized certain subgroups -- such as indigenous households -- the fact that those groups benefited more implies that they were in fact assigned a lower welfare weight. The PROGRESA case illustrates how the method makes it possible to audit existing policies, and to design future policies that better align with values.
Key facts. Cited by 4 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 7 of its 43 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 1 Jun 2022.
Builds on
7 of 43 references.
References · 7
- 2015Estimation and Inference of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Random Forestscited by 600
- 2018Delayed Impact of Fair Machine Learningcited by 184
- 2017Runaway Feedback Loops in Predictive Policingcited by 97
- 2018From Fair Decision Making to Social Equalitycited by 36
- 2020Balancing Competing Objectives with Noisy Data: Score-Based Classifiers for Welfare-Aware Machine Learningcited by 17
- 2018Welfare and Distributional Impacts of Fair Classificationcited by 5
- 2018Evaluating Ex Ante Counterfactual Predictions Using Ex Post Causal Inferencecited by 2
Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2023: 1; 2024: 1; 2025: 1; 2026: 1.
4 papers.
- 2025Welfare as a Guiding Principle for Machine Learning -- From Compass, to Lens, to Roadmapcited by 2
- 2023Perceptions and Detection of AI Use in Manuscript Preparation for Academic Journalscited by 1
- 2024Reduced-Rank Multi-objective Policy Learning and Optimizationcited by 1
- 2026What Would it Cost to End Extreme Poverty?cited by 0
- 2026What Would it Cost to End Extreme Poverty?2 Sep 2026
- 2025Welfare as a Guiding Principle for Machine Learning -- From Compass, to Lens, to Roadmap17 Feb 2025
- 2024Reduced-Rank Multi-objective Policy Learning and Optimization29 Apr 2024
- 2023Perceptions and Detection of AI Use in Manuscript Preparation for Academic Journals19 Nov 2023