Collision Risk and Operational Impact of Speed Change Advisories as Aircraft Collision Avoidance Maneuvers

Aircraft collision avoidance systems have long been a key factor in keeping our airspace safe. Over the past decade, the FAA has supported the development of a new family of collision avoidance systems called the Airborne Collision Avoidance System X (ACAS X), which model the collision avoidance problem as a Markov decision process (MDP). Variants of ACAS X have been created for both manned (ACAS Xa) and unmanned aircraft (ACAS Xu and ACAS sXu). The variants primarily differ in the types of collision avoidance maneuvers they issue. For example, ACAS Xa issues vertical collision avoidance advisories, while ACAS Xu and ACAS sXu allow for horizontal advisories due to reduced aircraft performance capabilities. Currently, a new variant of ACAS X, called ACAS Xr, is being developed to provide collision avoidance capability to rotorcraft and Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) vehicles. Due to the desire to minimize deviation from the prescribed flight path of these aircraft, speed adjustments have been proposed as a potential collision avoidance maneuver for aircraft using ACAS Xr. In this work, we investigate the effect of speed change advisories on the safety and operational efficiency of collision avoidance systems. We develop an MDP-based collision avoidance logic that issues speed advisories and compare its performance to that of horizontal and vertical logics through Monte Carlo simulation on existing airspace encounter models. Our results show that while speed advisories are able to reduce collision risk, they are neither as safe nor as efficient as their horizontal and vertical counterparts.