CRASS: A Novel Data Set and Benchmark to Test Counterfactual Reasoning of Large Language Models
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Abstract (arXiv)
We introduce the CRASS (counterfactual reasoning assessment) data set and benchmark utilizing questionized counterfactual conditionals as a novel and powerful tool to evaluate large language models. We present the data set design and benchmark that supports scoring against a crowd-validated human baseline. We test six state-of-the-art models against our benchmark. Our results show that it poses a valid challenge for these models and opens up considerable room for their improvement.
Key facts. Cited by 33 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 35 of its 72 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 22 Dec 2021.
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35 of 72 references.
References · 35
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Citing papers per year: 2022: 1; 2023: 10; 2024: 13; 2025: 7; 2026: 2.
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- 2023Causal Reasoning and Large Language Models: Opening a New Frontier for Causalitycited by 348
- 2023Reasoning or Reciting? Exploring the Capabilities and Limitations of Language Models Through Counterfactual Taskscited by 243
- 2023Orca 2: Teaching Small Language Models How to Reasoncited by 157
- 2024OpenFedLLM: Training Large Language Models on Decentralized Private Data via Federated Learningcited by 124
- 2024Beyond Accuracy: Evaluating the Reasoning Behavior of Large Language Models -- A Surveycited by 82
- 2023Integrating Large Language Model for Improved Causal Discoverycited by 54
- 2024EmbedLLM: Learning Compact Representations of Large Language Modelscited by 46
- 2023Towards LogiGLUE: A Brief Survey and A Benchmark for Analyzing Logical Reasoning Capabilities of Language Modelscited by 35
- 2023Counterfactual reasoning: Testing language models' understanding of hypothetical scenarioscited by 27
- 2023CRAB: Assessing the Strength of Causal Relationships Between Real-world Eventscited by 27
- 2024Causality for Large Language Modelscited by 24
- 2022CORE: A Retrieve-then-Edit Framework for Counterfactual Data Generationcited by 23
21 more
- 2024ProteinGPT: Multimodal LLM for Protein Property Prediction and Structure Understandingcited by 23
- 2025On Robustness and Reliability of Benchmark-Based Evaluation of LLMscited by 23
- 2023Causal Structure Learning Supervised by Large Language Modelcited by 21
- 2024From GPT-4 to Gemini and Beyond: Assessing the Landscape of MLLMs on Generalizability, Trustworthiness and Causality through Four Modalitiescited by 18
- 2024Causal Evaluation of Language Modelscited by 18
- 2024Counterfactual Token Generation in Large Language Modelscited by 14
- 2024Reasoning Elicitation in Language Models via Counterfactual Feedbackcited by 14
- 2024A Critical Review of Causal Reasoning Benchmarks for Large Language Modelscited by 13
- 2024Failure Modes of LLMs for Causal Reasoning on Narrativescited by 12
- 2023Can LLMs Augment Low-Resource Reading Comprehension Datasets? Opportunities and Challengescited by 9
- 2023Learning to Plan with Natural Languagecited by 6
- 2024RNR: Teaching Large Language Models to Follow Roles and Rulescited by 6
- 2025CYCLE-INSTRUCT: Fully Seed-Free Instruction Tuning via Dual Self-Training and Cycle Consistencycited by 6
- 2025On the Eligibility of LLMs for Counterfactual Reasoning: A Decompositional Studycited by 5
- 2025DP-FedLoRA: Privacy-Enhanced Federated Fine-Tuning for On-Device Large Language Modelscited by 4
- 2025Exploring the Hidden Reasoning Process of Large Language Models by Misleading Themcited by 3
- 2024ACCORD: Closing the Commonsense Measurability Gapcited by 1
- 2025A Study of Commonsense Reasoning over Visual Object Propertiescited by 1
- 2025How Well Do LLMs Understand Drug Mechanisms? A Knowledge + Reasoning Evaluation Datasetcited by 1
- 2026Benchmarking LLMs for Pairwise Causal Discovery in Biomedical and Multi-Domain Contextscited by 1
- 2026CausalT5k: Diagnosing Refusal and Failure Modes in Trustworthy Causal Reasoning Across Causal Rungscited by 1
- 2026CausalT5k: Diagnosing Refusal and Failure Modes in Trustworthy Causal Reasoning Across Causal Rungs9 Feb 2026
- 2026Benchmarking LLMs for Pairwise Causal Discovery in Biomedical and Multi-Domain Contexts21 Jan 2026
- 2025How Well Do LLMs Understand Drug Mechanisms? A Knowledge + Reasoning Evaluation Dataset9 Nov 2025
- 2025DP-FedLoRA: Privacy-Enhanced Federated Fine-Tuning for On-Device Large Language Models11 Sep 2025
- 2025On Robustness and Reliability of Benchmark-Based Evaluation of LLMs4 Sep 2025
- 2025CYCLE-INSTRUCT: Fully Seed-Free Instruction Tuning via Dual Self-Training and Cycle Consistency22 Aug 2025
- 2025A Study of Commonsense Reasoning over Visual Object Properties14 Aug 2025
- 2025On the Eligibility of LLMs for Counterfactual Reasoning: A Decompositional Study17 May 2025
- 2025Exploring the Hidden Reasoning Process of Large Language Models by Misleading Them20 Mar 2025
- 2024Failure Modes of LLMs for Causal Reasoning on Narratives31 Oct 2024
- 2024Causality for Large Language Models20 Oct 2024
- 2024EmbedLLM: Learning Compact Representations of Large Language Models3 Oct 2024
21 more
- 2024Reasoning Elicitation in Language Models via Counterfactual Feedback2 Oct 2024
- 2024Counterfactual Token Generation in Large Language Models25 Sep 2024
- 2024RNR: Teaching Large Language Models to Follow Roles and Rules10 Sep 2024
- 2024ProteinGPT: Multimodal LLM for Protein Property Prediction and Structure Understanding21 Aug 2024
- 2024A Critical Review of Causal Reasoning Benchmarks for Large Language Models10 Jul 2024
- 2024ACCORD: Closing the Commonsense Measurability Gap4 Jun 2024
- 2024Causal Evaluation of Language Models1 May 2024
- 2024Beyond Accuracy: Evaluating the Reasoning Behavior of Large Language Models -- A Survey2 Apr 2024
- 2024OpenFedLLM: Training Large Language Models on Decentralized Private Data via Federated Learning10 Feb 2024
- 2024From GPT-4 to Gemini and Beyond: Assessing the Landscape of MLLMs on Generalizability, Trustworthiness and Causality through Four Modalities26 Jan 2024
- 2023Causal Structure Learning Supervised by Large Language Model20 Nov 2023
- 2023Orca 2: Teaching Small Language Models How to Reason18 Nov 2023
- 2023CRAB: Assessing the Strength of Causal Relationships Between Real-world Events7 Nov 2023
- 2023Towards LogiGLUE: A Brief Survey and A Benchmark for Analyzing Logical Reasoning Capabilities of Language Models2 Oct 2023
- 2023Can LLMs Augment Low-Resource Reading Comprehension Datasets? Opportunities and Challenges21 Sep 2023
- 2023Reasoning or Reciting? Exploring the Capabilities and Limitations of Language Models Through Counterfactual Tasks5 Jul 2023
- 2023Integrating Large Language Model for Improved Causal Discovery29 Jun 2023
- 2023Counterfactual reasoning: Testing language models' understanding of hypothetical scenarios26 May 2023
- 2023Causal Reasoning and Large Language Models: Opening a New Frontier for Causality28 Apr 2023
- 2023Learning to Plan with Natural Language20 Apr 2023
- 2022CORE: A Retrieve-then-Edit Framework for Counterfactual Data Generation10 Oct 2022
- 2023Causal Reasoning and Large Language Models: Opening a New Frontier for Causalitycited by 348
- 2023Reasoning or Reciting? Exploring the Capabilities and Limitations of Language Models Through Counterfactual Taskscited by 243
- 2024Beyond Accuracy: Evaluating the Reasoning Behavior of Large Language Models -- A Surveycited by 82
- 2023Towards LogiGLUE: A Brief Survey and A Benchmark for Analyzing Logical Reasoning Capabilities of Language Modelscited by 35
- 2023Counterfactual reasoning: Testing language models' understanding of hypothetical scenarioscited by 27
- 2024Causal Evaluation of Language Modelscited by 18
- 2024Reasoning Elicitation in Language Models via Counterfactual Feedbackcited by 14
- 2024A Critical Review of Causal Reasoning Benchmarks for Large Language Modelscited by 13
- 2024Failure Modes of LLMs for Causal Reasoning on Narrativescited by 12
- 2025On the Eligibility of LLMs for Counterfactual Reasoning: A Decompositional Studycited by 5
- 2025Exploring the Hidden Reasoning Process of Large Language Models by Misleading Themcited by 3
- 2024ACCORD: Closing the Commonsense Measurability Gapcited by 1
12 most cited of 15 All 15 (JSON)
- 2026CausalT5k: Diagnosing Refusal and Failure Modes in Trustworthy Causal Reasoning Across Causal Rungs9 Feb 2026
- 2025How Well Do LLMs Understand Drug Mechanisms? A Knowledge + Reasoning Evaluation Dataset9 Nov 2025
- 2025A Study of Commonsense Reasoning over Visual Object Properties14 Aug 2025
- 2025On the Eligibility of LLMs for Counterfactual Reasoning: A Decompositional Study17 May 2025
- 2025Exploring the Hidden Reasoning Process of Large Language Models by Misleading Them20 Mar 2025
- 2024Failure Modes of LLMs for Causal Reasoning on Narratives31 Oct 2024
- 2024Reasoning Elicitation in Language Models via Counterfactual Feedback2 Oct 2024
- 2024A Critical Review of Causal Reasoning Benchmarks for Large Language Models10 Jul 2024
- 2024ACCORD: Closing the Commonsense Measurability Gap4 Jun 2024
- 2024Causal Evaluation of Language Models1 May 2024
- 2024Beyond Accuracy: Evaluating the Reasoning Behavior of Large Language Models -- A Survey2 Apr 2024
- 2023Towards LogiGLUE: A Brief Survey and A Benchmark for Analyzing Logical Reasoning Capabilities of Language Models2 Oct 2023
12 newest of 15 All 15 (JSON)
- 2023Orca 2: Teaching Small Language Models How to Reasoncited by 157
- 2024OpenFedLLM: Training Large Language Models on Decentralized Private Data via Federated Learningcited by 124
- 2023Integrating Large Language Model for Improved Causal Discoverycited by 54
- 2024EmbedLLM: Learning Compact Representations of Large Language Modelscited by 46
- 2023CRAB: Assessing the Strength of Causal Relationships Between Real-world Eventscited by 27
- 2024Causality for Large Language Modelscited by 24
- 2022CORE: A Retrieve-then-Edit Framework for Counterfactual Data Generationcited by 23
- 2024ProteinGPT: Multimodal LLM for Protein Property Prediction and Structure Understandingcited by 23
- 2025On Robustness and Reliability of Benchmark-Based Evaluation of LLMscited by 23
- 2023Causal Structure Learning Supervised by Large Language Modelcited by 21
- 2024Counterfactual Token Generation in Large Language Modelscited by 14
- 2023Can LLMs Augment Low-Resource Reading Comprehension Datasets? Opportunities and Challengescited by 9
12 most cited of 16 All 16 (JSON)
- 2026Benchmarking LLMs for Pairwise Causal Discovery in Biomedical and Multi-Domain Contexts21 Jan 2026
- 2025DP-FedLoRA: Privacy-Enhanced Federated Fine-Tuning for On-Device Large Language Models11 Sep 2025
- 2025On Robustness and Reliability of Benchmark-Based Evaluation of LLMs4 Sep 2025
- 2024Causality for Large Language Models20 Oct 2024
- 2024EmbedLLM: Learning Compact Representations of Large Language Models3 Oct 2024
- 2024Counterfactual Token Generation in Large Language Models25 Sep 2024
- 2024RNR: Teaching Large Language Models to Follow Roles and Rules10 Sep 2024
- 2024ProteinGPT: Multimodal LLM for Protein Property Prediction and Structure Understanding21 Aug 2024
- 2024OpenFedLLM: Training Large Language Models on Decentralized Private Data via Federated Learning10 Feb 2024
- 2023Causal Structure Learning Supervised by Large Language Model20 Nov 2023
- 2023Orca 2: Teaching Small Language Models How to Reason18 Nov 2023
- 2023CRAB: Assessing the Strength of Causal Relationships Between Real-world Events7 Nov 2023
12 newest of 16 All 16 (JSON)