Disrupting Deep Uncertainty Estimation Without Harming Accuracy
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Abstract (arXiv)
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have proven to be powerful predictors and are widely used for various tasks. Credible uncertainty estimation of their predictions, however, is crucial for their deployment in many risk-sensitive applications. In this paper we present a novel and simple attack, which unlike adversarial attacks, does not cause incorrect predictions but instead cripples the network's capacity for uncertainty estimation. The result is that after the attack, the DNN is more confident of its incorrect predictions than about its correct ones without having its accuracy reduced. We present two versions of the attack. The first scenario focuses on a black-box regime (where the attacker has no knowledge of the target network) and the second scenario attacks a white-box setting. The proposed attack is only required to be of minuscule magnitude for its perturbations to cause severe uncertainty estimation damage, with larger magnitudes resulting in completely unusable uncertainty estimations. We demonstrate successful attacks on three of the most popular uncertainty estimation methods: the vanilla softmax score, Deep Ensembles and MC-Dropout. Additionally, we show an attack on SelectiveNet, the selective classification architecture. We test the proposed attack on several contemporary architectures such as MobileNetV2 and EfficientNetB0, all trained to classify ImageNet.
Key facts. Cited by 19 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 17 of its 47 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 26 Oct 2021.
Builds on
17 of 47 references.
References · 17
- 2015Deep Residual Learning for Image Recognitioncited by 52,096
- 2019PyTorch: An Imperative Style, High-Performance Deep Learning Librarycited by 20,305
- 2014Very Deep Convolutional Networks for Large-Scale Image Recognitioncited by 15,364
- 2014Explaining and Harnessing Adversarial Examplescited by 7,364
- 2016Densely Connected Convolutional Networkscited by 6,720
- 2019EfficientNet: Rethinking Model Scaling for Convolutional Neural Networkscited by 6,442
- 2017Towards Deep Learning Models Resistant to Adversarial Attackscited by 6,415
- 2013Intriguing properties of neural networkscited by 5,155
- 2015Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learningcited by 4,448
- 2016Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensemblescited by 3,926
- 2016Adversarial examples in the physical worldcited by 1,769
- 2017Selective Classification for Deep Neural Networkscited by 852
5 more
- 2016Delving into Transferable Adversarial Examples and Black-box Attackscited by 536
- 2019SelectiveNet: A Deep Neural Network with an Integrated Reject Optioncited by 350
- 2019Adversarial Examples Improve Image Recognitioncited by 286
- 2018Bias-Reduced Uncertainty Estimation for Deep Neural Classifierscited by 113
- 2020Evaluating Robustness of Predictive Uncertainty Estimation: Are Dirichlet-based Models Reliable?cited by 39
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Citing papers per year: 2022: 1; 2023: 1; 2024: 7; 2025: 4; 2026: 6.
19 papers.
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- 2024Overcoming Common Flaws in the Evaluation of Selective Classification Systemscited by 37
- 2023Calibrating Multimodal Learningcited by 17
- 2025Uncertainty Quantification for Machine Learning in Healthcare: A Surveycited by 14
- 2024Calibration Attacks: A Comprehensive Study of Adversarial Attacks on Model Confidencecited by 7
- 2024Towards Certification of Uncertainty Calibration under Adversarial Attackscited by 5
- 2022On Attacking Out-Domain Uncertainty Estimation in Deep Neural Networkscited by 4
- 2025On the Robustness of Verbal Confidence of LLMs in Adversarial Attackscited by 3
- 2024Attacking Bayes: On the Adversarial Robustness of Bayesian Neural Networkscited by 2
- 2024On the Robustness of Adversarial Training Against Uncertainty Attackscited by 2
- 2024Beyond Simple Averaging: Improving NLP Ensemble Performance with Topological-Data-Analysis-Based Weightingcited by 1
- 2024Integrating uncertainty quantification into randomized smoothing based robustness guaranteescited by 1
- 2025A Few Large Shifts: Layer-Inconsistency Based Minimal Overhead Adversarial Example Detectioncited by 1
7 more
- 2025Evasion Attacks Against Bayesian Predictive Modelscited by 1
- 2026How Worst-Case Are Adversarial Attacks? Linking Adversarial and Perturbation Robustnesscited by 0
- 2026Temperature Scaling Attack Disrupting Model Confidence in Federated Learningcited by 0
- 2026ECUASn: A family of metrics for principled evaluation of uncertainty-augmented systemscited by 0
- 2026The Confidence Trap: Calibration Attacks for Graph Neural Networkscited by 0
- 2026LiST: Lipschitz Scaling Training for Robust and Calibrated Neural Networkscited by 0
- 2026Vision-Language Model Confidence Is Not a Property of the Answercited by 0
- 2026Vision-Language Model Confidence Is Not a Property of the Answer6 Aug 2026
- 2026LiST: Lipschitz Scaling Training for Robust and Calibrated Neural Networks8 Jul 2026
- 2026The Confidence Trap: Calibration Attacks for Graph Neural Networks7 Jun 2026
- 2026ECUASn: A family of metrics for principled evaluation of uncertainty-augmented systems19 May 2026
- 2026Temperature Scaling Attack Disrupting Model Confidence in Federated Learning6 Feb 2026
- 2026How Worst-Case Are Adversarial Attacks? Linking Adversarial and Perturbation Robustness20 Jan 2026
- 2025On the Robustness of Verbal Confidence of LLMs in Adversarial Attacks9 Jul 2025
- 2025Evasion Attacks Against Bayesian Predictive Models11 Jun 2025
- 2025A Few Large Shifts: Layer-Inconsistency Based Minimal Overhead Adversarial Example Detection19 May 2025
- 2025Uncertainty Quantification for Machine Learning in Healthcare: A Survey4 May 2025
- 2024On the Robustness of Adversarial Training Against Uncertainty Attacks29 Oct 2024
- 2024Integrating uncertainty quantification into randomized smoothing based robustness guarantees27 Oct 2024
7 more
- 2024Overcoming Common Flaws in the Evaluation of Selective Classification Systems1 Jul 2024
- 2024Towards Certification of Uncertainty Calibration under Adversarial Attacks22 May 2024
- 2024Attacking Bayes: On the Adversarial Robustness of Bayesian Neural Networks27 Apr 2024
- 2024Beyond Simple Averaging: Improving NLP Ensemble Performance with Topological-Data-Analysis-Based Weighting22 Feb 2024
- 2024Calibration Attacks: A Comprehensive Study of Adversarial Attacks on Model Confidence5 Jan 2024
- 2023Calibrating Multimodal Learning2 Jun 2023
- 2022On Attacking Out-Domain Uncertainty Estimation in Deep Neural Networks3 Oct 2022
- 2024Overcoming Common Flaws in the Evaluation of Selective Classification Systemscited by 37
- 2023Calibrating Multimodal Learningcited by 17
- 2025Uncertainty Quantification for Machine Learning in Healthcare: A Surveycited by 14
- 2024Calibration Attacks: A Comprehensive Study of Adversarial Attacks on Model Confidencecited by 7
- 2024Towards Certification of Uncertainty Calibration under Adversarial Attackscited by 5
- 2022On Attacking Out-Domain Uncertainty Estimation in Deep Neural Networkscited by 4
- 2025On the Robustness of Verbal Confidence of LLMs in Adversarial Attackscited by 3
- 2024Attacking Bayes: On the Adversarial Robustness of Bayesian Neural Networkscited by 2
- 2024On the Robustness of Adversarial Training Against Uncertainty Attackscited by 2
- 2024Beyond Simple Averaging: Improving NLP Ensemble Performance with Topological-Data-Analysis-Based Weightingcited by 1
- 2024Integrating uncertainty quantification into randomized smoothing based robustness guaranteescited by 1
- 2025A Few Large Shifts: Layer-Inconsistency Based Minimal Overhead Adversarial Example Detectioncited by 1
12 most cited of 19 All 19 (JSON)
- 2026Vision-Language Model Confidence Is Not a Property of the Answer6 Aug 2026
- 2026LiST: Lipschitz Scaling Training for Robust and Calibrated Neural Networks8 Jul 2026
- 2026The Confidence Trap: Calibration Attacks for Graph Neural Networks7 Jun 2026
- 2026ECUASn: A family of metrics for principled evaluation of uncertainty-augmented systems19 May 2026
- 2026Temperature Scaling Attack Disrupting Model Confidence in Federated Learning6 Feb 2026
- 2026How Worst-Case Are Adversarial Attacks? Linking Adversarial and Perturbation Robustness20 Jan 2026
- 2025On the Robustness of Verbal Confidence of LLMs in Adversarial Attacks9 Jul 2025
- 2025Evasion Attacks Against Bayesian Predictive Models11 Jun 2025
- 2025A Few Large Shifts: Layer-Inconsistency Based Minimal Overhead Adversarial Example Detection19 May 2025
- 2025Uncertainty Quantification for Machine Learning in Healthcare: A Survey4 May 2025
- 2024On the Robustness of Adversarial Training Against Uncertainty Attacks29 Oct 2024
- 2024Integrating uncertainty quantification into randomized smoothing based robustness guarantees27 Oct 2024
12 newest of 19 All 19 (JSON)