Uncertainty measures: The big picture
Not on the map. Why?
Abstract (arXiv)
Probability theory is far from being the most general mathematical theory of uncertainty. A number of arguments point at its inability to describe second-order ('Knightian') uncertainty. In response, a wide array of theories of uncertainty have been proposed, many of them generalisations of classical probability. As we show here, such frameworks can be organised into clusters sharing a common rationale, exhibit complex links, and are characterised by different levels of generality. Our goal is a critical appraisal of the current landscape in uncertainty theory.
Key facts. Cited by 8 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 8 of its 183 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 14 Apr 2021.
Builds on
8 of 183 references.
References · 8
- 2018Visions of a generalized probability theorycited by 13
- 2013Decision under Uncertaintycited by 11
- 2013The Dynamic of Belief in the Transferable Belief Model and Specialization-Generalization Matricescited by 5
- 2013A New Approach to Updating Beliefscited by 4
- 2013Generalizing the Dempster-Shafer Theory to Fuzzy Setscited by 2
- 2013Higher Order Probabilitiescited by 1
- 2013Metaprobability and Dempster-Shafer in Evidential Reasoningcited by 1
- 2013Evidential Confirmation as Transformed Probabilitycited by 1
Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2023: 1; 2024: 0; 2025: 2; 2026: 5.
8 papers.
- 2025Epistemic Artificial Intelligence is Essential for Machine Learning Models to Truly 'Know When They Do Not Know'cited by 8
- 2023Reasoning with random sets: An agenda for the futurecited by 6
- 2025Epistemic Wrapping for Uncertainty Quantificationcited by 5
- 2026Random-Set Graph Neural Networkscited by 3
- 2026Statistical inference with belief functions: A surveycited by 2
- 2026Credal Large Language Models for Semantic Commitment under Uncertaintycited by 2
- 2026A neurosymbolic Approach with Epistemic Deep Learning for Hierarchical Image Classificationcited by 1
- 2026XU-RS: Explaining Credal Width in Random-Set Language Modelscited by 0
- 2026XU-RS: Explaining Credal Width in Random-Set Language Models29 Sep 2026
- 2026Credal Large Language Models for Semantic Commitment under Uncertainty24 Aug 2026
- 2026Random-Set Graph Neural Networks12 May 2026
- 2026A neurosymbolic Approach with Epistemic Deep Learning for Hierarchical Image Classification11 May 2026
- 2026Statistical inference with belief functions: A survey8 May 2026
- 2025Epistemic Artificial Intelligence is Essential for Machine Learning Models to Truly 'Know When They Do Not Know'8 May 2025
- 2025Epistemic Wrapping for Uncertainty Quantification4 May 2025
- 2023Reasoning with random sets: An agenda for the future19 Dec 2023