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A framework for the fine-grained evaluation of the instantaneous expected value of soccer possessions

arXiv 2011.09426 ↗First posted 18 Nov 2020cs.LGcited by 24

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Abstract (arXiv)

The expected possession value (EPV) of a soccer possession represents the likelihood of a team scoring or receiving the next goal at any time instance. By decomposing the EPV into a series of subcomponents that are estimated separately, we develop a comprehensive analysis framework providing soccer practitioners with the ability to evaluate the impact of both observed and potential actions. We show we can obtain calibrated models for all the components of EPV, including a set of yet-unexplored problems in soccer. We produce visually-interpretable probability surfaces for potential passes from a series of deep neural network architectures that learn from low-level spatiotemporal data. Additionally, we present a series of novel practical applications providing coaches with an enriched interpretation of specific game situations.

Key facts. Cited by 24 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 18 Nov 2020.

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Cited by year (2026 to 7 Oct)

Citing papers per year: 2021: 1; 2022: 3; 2023: 2; 2024: 2; 2025: 7; 2026: 9.

24 papers.

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  1. 2022Explainable expected goal models for performance analysis in football analyticscited by 5
  2. 2023Glocal Explanations of Expected Goal Models in Soccercited by 4
  3. 2024Estimating Player Performance in Different Contexts Using Fine-tuned Large Events Modelscited by 3
  4. 2024A Foundation Model for Soccercited by 3
  5. 2023Presenting Multiagent Challenges in Team Sports Analyticscited by 2
  6. 2025Better Prevent than Tackle: Valuing Defense in Soccer Based on Graph Neural Networkscited by 2
  7. 2021Development of an expected possession value model to analyse team attacking performances in rugby leaguecited by 1
  8. 2022Is it worth the effort? Understanding and contextualizing physical metrics in soccercited by 1
  9. 2022Valuing Players Over Timecited by 1
  10. 2025Revisiting Expected Possession Value in Football: Introducing a Benchmark, U-Net Architecture, and Reward and Risk for Passescited by 1
  11. 2025Action Valuation in Sports: A Surveycited by 1
  12. 2025The path to a goal: Understanding soccer possessions via path signaturescited by 1
12 more
  1. 2026A Machine Learning Framework for Off Ball Defensive Role and Performance Evaluation in Footballcited by 1
  2. 2026Space-Creating versus Dead Possession: An Off-Ball Possession-Quality Index for Broadcast Footballcited by 1
  3. 2025SoccerTrack v2: A Full-Pitch Panoramic Video Dataset for Game State Reconstruction and Ball Action Spottingcited by 0
  4. 2025Large-Scale In-Game Outcome Forecasting for Match, Team and Players in Football using an Axial Transformer Neural Networkcited by 0
  5. 2025Beyond Expected Goals: A Probabilistic Framework for Shot Occurrences in Soccercited by 0
  6. 2026Modeling Matches as Language: A Generative Transformer Approach for Counterfactual Player Valuation in Footballcited by 0
  7. 2026Structural Pass Analysis in Football: Learning Pass Archetypes and Tactical Impact from Spatio-Temporal Tracking Datacited by 0
  8. 2026Maximising the Set-Piece Return: Optimising Football Corner Tactics with Graph Reinforcement Learningcited by 0
  9. 2026Monte Carlo Pass Search: Using Trajectory Generation for 3D Counterfactual Pass Evaluation in Footballcited by 0
  10. 2026SportD: How do VLMs physically strategize?cited by 0
  11. 2026How Much Velocity Does Off-Ball Space Value Need? A Broadcast-Viewport Benchmarkcited by 0
  12. 2026Graph-to-Grid (G2G): Continuous-Coordinate Feature Painting for Soccer Pass Surfacescited by 0