mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Artificial Intelligence is stupid and causal reasoning won't fix it

arXiv 2008.07371 ↗First posted 20 Jul 2020cs.CY cs.AIcited by 20

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Abstract (arXiv)

Artificial Neural Networks have reached Grandmaster and even super-human performance across a variety of games: from those involving perfect-information (such as Go) to those involving imperfect-information (such as Starcraft). Such technological developments from AI-labs have ushered concomitant applications across the world of business - where an AI brand tag is fast becoming ubiquitous. A corollary of such widespread commercial deployment is that when AI gets things wrong - an autonomous vehicle crashes; a chatbot exhibits racist behaviour; automated credit scoring processes discriminate on gender etc. - there are often significant financial, legal and brand consequences and the incident becomes major news. As Judea Pearl sees it, the underlying reason for such mistakes is that, 'all the impressive achievements of deep learning amount to just curve fitting'. The key, Judea Pearl suggests, is to replace reasoning by association with causal-reasoning - the ability to infer causes from observed phenomena. It is a point that was echoed by Gary Marcus and Ernest Davis in a recent piece for the New York Times: 'we need to stop building computer systems that merely get better and better at detecting statistical patterns in data sets - often using an approach known as Deep Learning - and start building computer systems that from the moment of their assembly innately grasp three basic concepts: time, space and causality'. In this paper, foregrounding what in 1949 Gilbert Ryle termed a category mistake, I will offer an alternative explanation for AI errors: it is not so much that AI machinery cannot grasp causality, but that AI machinery - qua computation - cannot understand anything at all.

Key facts. Cited by 20 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 20 Jul 2020.

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Citing papers per year: 2021: 1; 2022: 2; 2023: 8; 2024: 4; 2025: 3; 2026: 2.

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  1. 2023Causal Parrots: Large Language Models May Talk Causality But Are Not Causalcited by 146
  2. 2022Can Foundation Models Talk Causality?cited by 30
  3. 2023Large Language Models: The Need for Nuance in Current Debates and a Pragmatic Perspective on Understandingcited by 20
  4. 2023Can Large Language Models emulate an inductive Thematic Analysis of semi-structured interviews? An exploration and provocation on the limits of the approach and the modelcited by 15
  5. 2024The Role of AI in Peer Support for Young People: A Study of Preferences for Human- and AI-Generated Responsescited by 15
  6. 2023Learning to Prompt in the Classroom to Understand AI Limits: A pilot studycited by 6
  7. 2024Causality from Bottom to Top: A Surveycited by 5
  8. 2024Narrating Causal Graphs with Large Language Modelscited by 4
  9. 2022Pearl Causal Hierarchy on Image Data: Intricacies & Challengescited by 3
  10. 2023Artificial Intelligence and Aesthetic Judgmentcited by 3
  11. 2023The Full Rights Dilemma for A.I. Systems of Debatable Personhoodcited by 2
  12. 2025What Does 'Human-Centred AI' Mean?cited by 2
8 more
  1. 2025BAMBI: Developing Baby Language Models for Italiancited by 1
  2. 2021"Weak AI" is Likely to Never Become "Strong AI", So What is its Greatest Value for us?cited by 0
  3. 2023ChatGPT (Feb 13 Version) is a Chinese Roomcited by 0
  4. 2023Can humans help BERT gain "confidence"?cited by 0
  5. 2024A Moonshot for AI Oracles in the Sciencescited by 0
  6. 2025Human-AI Co-Embodied Intelligence for Scientific Experimentation and Manufacturingcited by 0
  7. 2026No More Maybe-Arrows: Resolving Causal Uncertainty by Breaking Symmetriescited by 0
  8. 2026A Polyphonic Conception of AI Understandingcited by 0