What can be estimated? Identifiability, estimability, causal inference and ill-posed inverse problems
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Abstract (arXiv)
We consider basic conceptual questions concerning the relationship between statistical estimation and causal inference. Firstly, we show how to translate causal inference problems into an abstract statistical formalism without requiring any structure beyond an arbitrarily-indexed family of probability models. The formalism is simple but can incorporate a variety of causal modelling frameworks, including 'structural causal models', but also models expressed in terms of, e.g., differential equations. We focus primarily on the structural/graphical causal modelling literature, however. Secondly, we consider the extent to which causal and statistical concerns can be cleanly separated, examining the fundamental question: 'What can be estimated from data?'. We call this the problem of estimability. We approach this by analysing a standard formal definition of 'can be estimated' commonly adopted in the causal inference literature -- identifiability -- in our abstract statistical formalism. We use elementary category theory to show that identifiability implies the existence of a Fisher-consistent estimator, but also show that this estimator may be discontinuous, and thus unstable, in general. This difficulty arises because the causal inference problem is, in general, an ill-posed inverse problem. Inverse problems have three conditions which must be satisfied to be considered well-posed: existence, uniqueness, and stability of solutions. Here identifiability corresponds to the question of uniqueness; in contrast, we take estimability to mean satisfaction of all three conditions, i.e. well-posedness. Lack of stability implies that naive translation of a causally identifiable quantity into an achievable statistical estimation target may prove impossible. Our article is primarily expository and aimed at unifying ideas from multiple fields, though we provide new constructions and proofs.
Key facts. Cited by 11 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 4 Apr 2019.
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Citing papers per year: 2021: 1; 2022: 2; 2023: 3; 2024: 2; 2025: 1; 2026: 2.
11 papers.
- 2022Spectral Representation Learning for Conditional Moment Modelscited by 12
- 2023DRCFS: Doubly Robust Causal Feature Selectioncited by 12
- 2022A Causal Research Pipeline and Tutorial for Psychologists and Social Scientistscited by 2
- 2024Identification of Average Causal Effects in Confounded Additive Noise Modelscited by 2
- 2025Generating Hypotheses of Dynamic Causal Graphs in Neuroscience: Leveraging Generative Factor Models of Observed Time Seriescited by 1
- 2021Deep Learning to Estimate Permeability using Geophysical Datacited by 0
- 2023Manually Selecting The Data Function for Supervised Learning of small datasetscited by 0
- 2023A tutorial on the Bayesian statistical approach to inverse problemscited by 0
- 2024Neural Networks with Causal Graph Constraints: A New Approach for Treatment Effects Estimationcited by 0
- 2026From inverse problems to neural operators: prediction, mechanism, and generalization of data-driven modelscited by 0
- 2026Two Layers of Instability in Causal Estimationcited by 0
- 2026Two Layers of Instability in Causal Estimation19 Jun 2026
- 2026From inverse problems to neural operators: prediction, mechanism, and generalization of data-driven models8 Jun 2026
- 2025Generating Hypotheses of Dynamic Causal Graphs in Neuroscience: Leveraging Generative Factor Models of Observed Time Series27 May 2025
- 2024Identification of Average Causal Effects in Confounded Additive Noise Models13 Jul 2024
- 2024Neural Networks with Causal Graph Constraints: A New Approach for Treatment Effects Estimation18 Apr 2024
- 2023DRCFS: Doubly Robust Causal Feature Selection12 Jun 2023
- 2023A tutorial on the Bayesian statistical approach to inverse problems15 Apr 2023
- 2023Manually Selecting The Data Function for Supervised Learning of small datasets7 Mar 2023
- 2022Spectral Representation Learning for Conditional Moment Models29 Oct 2022
- 2022A Causal Research Pipeline and Tutorial for Psychologists and Social Scientists10 Jun 2022
- 2021Deep Learning to Estimate Permeability using Geophysical Data8 Oct 2021