mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Accurate estimation of influenza epidemics using Google search data via ARGO

arXiv 1505.00864 ↗First posted 5 May 2015stat.AP cs.SI stat.MLcited by 17

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Abstract (arXiv)

Accurate real-time tracking of influenza outbreaks helps public health officials make timely and meaningful decisions that could save lives. We propose an influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), that uses publicly available online search data. In addition to having a rigorous statistical foundation, ARGO outperforms all previously available Google-search-based tracking models, including the latest version of Google Flu Trends, even though it uses only low-quality search data as input from publicly available Google Trends and Google Correlate websites. ARGO not only incorporates the seasonality in influenza epidemics but also captures changes in people's online search behavior over time. ARGO is also flexible, self-correcting, robust, and scalable, making it a potentially powerful tool that can be used for real-time tracking of other social events at multiple temporal and spatial resolutions.

Key facts. Cited by 17 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). First posted on arXiv 5 May 2015.

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Citing papers per year: 2021: 5; 2022: 5; 2023: 3; 2024: 3; 2025: 1.

17 papers.

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  1. 2024In-context Time Series Predictorcited by 21
  2. 2022Data-Centric Epidemic Forecasting: A Surveycited by 8
  3. 2021Back2Future: Leveraging Backfill Dynamics for Improving Real-time Predictions in Futurecited by 7
  4. 2021Bandit Quickest Changepoint Detectioncited by 7
  5. 2023ARM: Refining Multivariate Forecasting with Adaptive Temporal-Contextual Learningcited by 6
  6. 2024DeformTime: Capturing Variable Dependencies with Deformable Attention for Time Series Forecastingcited by 6
  7. 2021Deep Epidemiological Modeling by Black-box Knowledge Distillation: An Accurate Deep Learning Model for COVID-19cited by 3
  8. 2022Evaluating Generalizability of Fine-Tuned Models for Fake News Detectioncited by 3
  9. 2023PEMS: Pre-trained Epidemic Time-series Modelscited by 3
  10. 2024Flusion: Integrating multiple data sources for accurate influenza predictionscited by 3
  11. 2021Estimating the Uncertainty of Neural Network Forecasts for Influenza Prevalence Using Web Search Activitycited by 1
  12. 2025Combining digital data streams and epidemic networks for real time outbreak detectioncited by 1
5 more
  1. 2021Single Model for Influenza Forecasting of Multiple Countries by Multi-task Learningcited by 0
  2. 2022An integrated recurrent neural network and regression model with spatial and climatic couplings for vector-borne disease dynamicscited by 0
  3. 2022COVID-19 Hospitalizations Forecasts Using Internet Search Datacited by 0
  4. 2022Detecting Elevated Air Pollution Levels by Monitoring Web Search Queries: Deep Learning-Based Time Series Forecastingcited by 0
  5. 2023Machine Learning for Infectious Disease Risk Prediction: A Surveycited by 0