mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Accuracy and Uncertainty in Machine Deception Detection (Research White Paper)

arXiv 2610.15314 ↗First posted 11 Oct 2026cs.LG cs.AI cs.CRcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

A deception detector is only as useful as the trust its alarms deserve. Like a polygraph, detectors that read a language model's internal activations can catch deceptive responses that look honest. Yet current detectors depend on which layers they read, weaken on broader tests, and do not state how certain their alarms are. This white paper proposes the Machine Deception Detector, which targets both detection accuracy and the uncertainty of detector scores. The detector reads every layer of the language model, learns which tokens carry evidence of deception using only response labels, and calibrates its alarm threshold so that its false--positive rate stays below a prescribed level. An ensemble of such detectors measures the uncertainty of each score and raises an alarm only when its members agree, with a confidence level that sets how certain each alarm must be. The proposed evaluation trains on instructed honest and deceptive statements, tests on five unseen deceptive tasks of Liars' Bench read by six Qwen3 models from 0.6B to 32B parameters, and is designed to also show which layers carry the deception feature and how this changes with model size.

Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 23 of its 42 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 11 Oct 2026.

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References · 23

  1. 2025Qwen3 Technical Reportcited by 8,820
  2. 2016Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensemblescited by 3,926
  3. 2016Understanding intermediate layers using linear classifier probescited by 1,353
  4. 2023Representation Engineering: A Top-Down Approach to AI Transparencycited by 1,336
  5. 2018Attention-based Deep Multiple Instance Learningcited by 1,095
  6. 2022Discovering Latent Knowledge in Language Models Without Supervisioncited by 767
  7. 2023The Linear Representation Hypothesis and the Geometry of Large Language Modelscited by 716
  8. 2023The Geometry of Truth: Emergent Linear Structure in Large Language Model Representations of True/False Datasetscited by 712
  9. 2023The Internal State of an LLM Knows When It's Lyingcited by 659
  10. 2019Conformal Prediction Under Covariate Shiftcited by 519
  11. 2020Underspecification Presents Challenges for Credibility in Modern Machine Learningcited by 496
  12. 2019Predictive Multiplicity in Classificationcited by 166
11 more
  1. 2023Overthinking the Truth: Understanding how Language Models Process False Demonstrationscited by 81
  2. 2024Transformers represent belief state geometry in their residual streamcited by 77
  3. 2025Detecting High-Stakes Interactions with Activation Probescited by 53
  4. 2016Neyman-Pearson (NP) classification algorithms and NP receiver operating characteristics (NP-ROC)cited by 23
  5. 2025Liars' Bench: Evaluating Lie Detectors for Language Modelscited by 22
  6. 2026The Obfuscation Atlas: Mapping Where Honesty Emerges in RLVR with Deception Probescited by 12
  7. 2025Preference Learning with Lie Detectors can Induce Honesty or Evasioncited by 9
  8. 2026One Probe Won't Catch Them All: Towards Targeted Deception Detectioncited by 9
  9. 2026Linear Probe Accuracy Scales with Model Size and Benefits from Multi-Layer Ensemblingcited by 4
  10. 2025Differentiable Filtering for Learning Hidden Markov Modelscited by 2
  11. 2026Diverse and Adaptable Arm Coordination for Octopus-Crawling via Diffusion-Based Uncertainty-Aware Optimizationcited by 1

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