Concentration, Not Uncertainty: Why Targeted Synthetic Data Doesn't Help Camouflaged Object Detection

Camouflaged object detection requires pixel-accurate masks, but obtaining such annotations is slow and costly, making synthetic training images an attractive alternative. Under a fixed generation budget, however, it remains unclear which real-image regions to target for synthetic data generation. We study an uncertainty-guided generation strategy that clusters the unlabelled real images, identifies clusters on which the model is least certain, allocates synthetic generation toward those clusters, and iteratively retrains the model. Across 103 training runs, uncertainty-based targeting does not outperform random allocation. Five independent controls further show that this null result is not an artifact: targeted training sets are measurably different from random sets, but the difference is explained by concentrating the generation budget rather than by where uncertainty is concentrated, as every concentration rule we test reproduces the effect and, on boundary accuracy, so does aiming at the clusters the model was most certain about. Separately, we find substantial data contamination in CHAMELEON, with 50 of its 76 images duplicated from training data despite the standard overlap check reporting zero overlap. Together, these results show that, under a fixed synthetic-data budget, budget concentration, not uncertainty-based targeting, accounts for the observed training-set effects.