Reliability-Aware Checkpoint Selection for Domain Generalization

Checkpoint selection in domain generalization often relies on source-validation accuracy, yet the selected checkpoint need not provide reliable probabilities on unseen target domains. Source-target distribution shifts can alter accuracy rankings, while accuracy alone does not measure predictive probability quality. We identify an empirical selection opportunity within fixed training trajectories: reselecting among checkpoints with near-optimal source accuracy can improve mean target probability quality with small observed changes in mean target accuracy. We study accuracy-constrained reliability selection (AC), which retains checkpoints within a tolerance of the best source-validation accuracy and ranks them by source reliability. Our reference rule aggregates within-set normalized negative log-likelihood (NLL) and class-wise calibration error (CwECE) using D_∞. AC uses no target data and requires neither additional training nor weight averaging. We evaluate five domain generalization training algorithms on three benchmarks, using PACS to develop the objectives and a 0.5-percentage-point tolerance. In exploratory aggregation comparisons on 360 OfficeHome and TerraIncognita runs, the reference rule reduces mean target soft-bin squared-gap ECE and CwECE by 0.240% and 0.182%, respectively, and NLL by 0.030 relative to Source-Acc. Mean target accuracy changes by +0.213 percentage points. These results identify opportunities for reliability-aware reselection, while the additional benefit of joint over single-objective ranking remains unresolved.