Visual Anomaly Synthesis for Model Selection in Data Scarcity

Defect detection systems for industrial condition monitoring can only be relied upon if they are validated, yet defective samples are rare and, for a specific asset, often nonexistent. We present a framework that synthesizes severity-graded defects on real non-defective images without any defect references for the target asset, that can be used for model selection and validation. A defect taxonomy for common failure modes is distilled from literature into prescriptive prompts at varying defect severities. Regions of interest are cropped from in defect-free images and edited with a pre-trained image generation model ("FLUX.2 [klein]"). Color-matching and blending are employed to improve structural coherence with the original image. Generations are filtered out by a scorer and by estimated detection difficulty. Model selection experiments on MVTecAD show image AUROC choice regret over model selection can be nearly halved compared to the best fixed model chosen with access to test data. Experiments show the need for severity-graded anomaly synthesis. A case study investigates the proposed method for in-situ monitoring of Pelton turbine runners in hydropower, where real defect images are rare and expensive to collect. A PatchCorebased anomaly detection model is fit on Pelton turbine images and selected and validated using synthetic images, showing strong detection performance (94 % correct detection at optimal threshold and AUROC 0.97). The model reliably detects moderate and advanced defects, while early-stage defects remain challenging, indicating the synthetic data meaningfully stresses detector sensitivity.