mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Equally Good, Yet Different: Benchmarking Rashomon sets in AutoML packages

arXiv 2609.36970 ↗First posted 29 Sep 2026cs.LGcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

The Rashomon effect describes the existence of multiple near-optimal models that achieve comparable performance while offering fundamentally different explanations. This creates a critical vulnerability in AutoML: x-hacking, the selective post-hoc choice of a model based on its explanation rather than predictive merit. No existing AutoML framework exposes this risk. We introduce ARSA ML, an open-source Python framework that quantifies Rashomon set structure and predictive multiplicity within AutoML pipelines. Using ARSA ML, we benchmark AutoGluon and H2O across 28 binary classification datasets, and conduct a post-hoc x-hacking analysis revealing a consistent structural asymmetry: AutoGluon produces larger, diverse sets with stable explanations, while H2O generates compact sets with markedly higher prediction divergence and explanation instability -- making H2O users considerably more exposed to x-hacking. This gap persists across all evaluated metrics and epsilon thresholds, pointing to a fundamental difference in each framework's model-building strategy. ARSA ML is available at https://pypi.org/project/arsa-ml/ .

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References · 23

  1. 2020Underspecification Presents Challenges for Credibility in Modern Machine Learningcited by 496
  2. 2020AutoGluon-Tabular: Robust and Accurate AutoML for Structured Datacited by 383
  3. 2018All Models are Wrong, but Many are Useful: Learning a Variable's Importance by Studying an Entire Class of Prediction Models Simultaneouslycited by 373
  4. 2025TabArena: A Living Benchmark for Machine Learning on Tabular Datacited by 176
  5. 2020Auto-Sklearn 2.0: Hands-free AutoML via Meta-Learningcited by 174
  6. 2019Predictive Multiplicity in Classificationcited by 166
  7. 2019On the Existence of Simpler Machine Learning Modelscited by 89
  8. 2020Fairwashing Explanations with Off-Manifold Detergentcited by 72
  9. 2024Amazing Things Come From Having Many Good Modelscited by 55
  10. 2022Rashomon Capacity: A Metric for Predictive Multiplicity in Classificationcited by 47
  11. 2022Predictive Multiplicity in Probabilistic Classificationcited by 44
  12. 2023A Path to Simpler Models Starts With Noisecited by 33
11 more
  1. 2023An Empirical Evaluation of the Rashomon Effect in Explainable Machine Learningcited by 25
  2. 2025Systemizing Multiplicity: The Curious Case of Arbitrariness in Machine Learningcited by 17
  3. 2024Investigating the Impact of Balancing, Filtering, and Complexity on Predictive Multiplicity: A Data-Centric Perspectivecited by 7
  4. 2025Beyond the Single-Best Model: Rashomon Partial Dependence Profile for Trustworthy Explanations in AutoMLcited by 6
  5. 2024X Hacking: The Threat of Misguided AutoMLcited by 5
  6. 2025The Role of Hyperparameters in Predictive Multiplicitycited by 4
  7. 2026Using predictive multiplicity to measure individual performance within the AI Actcited by 2
  8. 2024Explainable AutoML (xAutoML) with adaptive modeling for yield enhancement in semiconductor smart manufacturingcited by 1
  9. 2025Towards the Formalization of a Trustworthy AI for Mining Interpretable Models explOiting Sophisticated Algorithmscited by 1
  10. 2026Evaluating the Ability of Explanations to Disambiguate Models in a Rashomon Setcited by 1
  11. 2026CASHomon Sets: Efficient Rashomon Sets Across Multiple Model Classes and their Hyperparameterscited by 1

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