Information-theoretic receding-horizon active learning of nonlinear dynamical systems

Accurately learning nonlinear dynamics from a finite-duration experiment requires the efficient collection of informative data. We address this challenge for stochastic controlled nonlinear dynamical systems whose state is observed along a single trajectory. Our goal is to reconstruct the unknown controlled state-increment map over a prescribed compact subset of state-input space. We construct a parametric estimator of the map using fixed nonlinear features, so that the model is nonlinear in the state and input, but linear in the unknown parameters. A Gaussian prior over the parameters yields recursive Bayesian posterior updates as data stream in, enabling online quantification of predictive uncertainty in the reconstructed dynamics over the target set. We formulate an optimal adaptive-design problem over an information state, using a prediction-oriented acquisition criterion based on the mean marginal mutual information between candidate future trajectories and the reconstructed dynamics over the target set. We then approximate the resulting adaptive-design problem by a non-myopic receding-horizon formulation, evaluate its remaining expectation using a scenario-based sample average, and solve the resulting deterministic program with the cross-entropy method, leveraging parallel candidate-scenario evaluations. Numerical experiments on a noisy multistable system demonstrate that the proposed adaptive information-seeking strategy reduces predictive uncertainty and reconstruction error more efficiently than common excitation baselines under comparable experimental constraints.