Addressing Spatial Indistinguishability in Spatiotemporal Prediction via Optimal Transport-Guided Masking

Spatiotemporal prediction aims to learn discriminative representations from correlated temporal signals over spatial structures for accurate future inference. A central challenge is spatial indistinguishability: different nodes may share similar historical patterns yet evolve toward divergent futures, severely degrading forecasting performance in real-world sensor networks. Existing embedding-based and graph neural network (GNN)-based approaches can partially detect such ambiguous nodes but rely on historical similarity, struggling to capture future behavioral divergence. We propose STOT (SpatioTemporal Optimal Transport), a self-supervised framework that resolves spatiotemporal ambiguity via structured masking guided by optimal transport. Our key idea treats indistinguishability as a disambiguation problem: future states are inferred by exploiting concurrent spatial correlations and their time-varying similarity. We design a similarity-aware metric for dynamic inter-node relationships and an optimal transport-based masking strategy to emphasize ambiguous positions during pre-training. A batch consistency constraint preserves semantic coherence, while a random-walk masking mechanism promotes structured context exploration. Experiments on six real-world datasets show that STOT performs competitively with state-of-the-art baselines on the evaluated benchmarks and improved interpretability through transport-plan visualizations.