A Decade of Climate Polarization on Brazilian YouTube using Language Models

Online platforms have become arenas for the public contestation of climate change, shaping how scientific knowledge, denial, and uncertainty are expressed and disputed. Yet longitudinal evidence remains limited for YouTube, especially for Portuguese-language discourse. Addressing this gap, we characterize how climate stances are expressed and contested over time in a large corpus of Portuguese-language YouTube comments retrieved through Brazil-oriented climate-related searches. To support this analysis in a noisy, imbalanced, and low-resource setting, we collect more than 240,000 comments posted between 2014 and 2024 and formulate stance detection as a three-way classification task (Believer, Denier, and Inconclusive). We operationalize stance attribution through a scalable self-training pipeline based on Llama 3.1, using Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) and hybrid instance selection to expand the training set with high-confidence pseudo-labeled examples while preserving class diversity. This approach improves coverage and class balance for minority and rhetorically complex classes, enabling large-scale stance attribution without extensive manual annotation. Our results show that polarisation is marked by interactional asymmetries: denialist comments are less prevalent, but they are associated with a comparatively higher share of cross-stance contestation, while pro-consensus discourse is more strongly reinforced within stance-homogeneous threads.