Calibration as a First-Class Criterion in LLM Evaluation
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Abstract (arXiv)
Calibration of language models -- the alignment between expressed or implicit confidence and empirical correctness -- is a well-studied subfield within NLP. Methods to measure it already exist. The problem is adoption: outside this subfield, NLP research regularly introduces new models, datasets, and benchmarks without checking whether the model's confidence scores are meaningful. We argue that this adoption gap is a major obstacle to trustworthy LLM evaluation. Miscalibration causes problems in two distinct areas: at deployment, where overconfident mistakes cause real harm, and inside the research pipeline, where methods like LLM-as-a-judge, synthetic data generation, and active learning rely on calibrated confidence without verifying it. Standard calibration metrics only require two inputs per example: a confidence score and a correctness judgment. Most benchmarks in use today already provide both, meaning calibration can be reported immediately. For open-ended generation, however, defining these two inputs is still an open challenge. We argue that each NLP subfield should pair its main performance metric with a calibration score and call for treating calibration as an essential property of every model rather than a niche topic.
Key facts. Cited by 1 paper in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 19 of its 36 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 22 Sep 2026.
Builds on
19 of 36 references.
References · 19
- 2017On Calibration of Modern Neural Networkscited by 4,960
- 2017What Uncertainties Do We Need in Bayesian Deep Learning for Computer Vision?cited by 2,352
- 2017Understanding Black-box Predictions via Influence Functionscited by 1,741
- 2023Can LLMs Express Their Uncertainty? An Empirical Evaluation of Confidence Elicitation in LLMscited by 974
- 2023Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedbackcited by 812
- 2022Teaching Models to Express Their Uncertainty in Wordscited by 751
- 2020How Can We Know When Language Models Know? On the Calibration of Language Models for Question Answeringcited by 445
- 2023Studying Large Language Model Generalization with Influence Functionscited by 326
- 2020Calibration of Pre-trained Transformerscited by 315
- 2019Verified Uncertainty Calibrationcited by 309
- 2023A Survey of Confidence Estimation and Calibration in Large Language Modelscited by 256
- 2020Reducing conversational agents' overconfidence through linguistic calibrationcited by 210
7 more
- 2024What Large Language Models Know and What People Think They Knowcited by 110
- 2024Relying on the Unreliable: The Impact of Language Models' Reluctance to Express Uncertaintycited by 106
- 2024Calibrating Large Language Models Using Their Generations Onlycited by 65
- 2025Reasoning Models Better Express Their Confidencecited by 65
- 2025Anthropomimetic Uncertainty: What Verbalized Uncertainty in Language Models is Missingcited by 14
- 2026Large Language Models Are Overconfident in Their Own Responsescited by 6
- 2026Frontier Models Can Take Actions at Low Probabilitiescited by 5
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