Predicting Out-of-Distribution Generalization of Neural Operators via Observable Spectral Error Decomposition

Neural operators have emerged as powerful surrogates for solving partial differential equations (PDEs), yet their reliability under distribution shift remains a critical barrier to deployment. Existing approaches to out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization in operator learning are largely empirical and black-box: they report aggregate error metrics without explaining why errors arise or when they will grow. We propose a structure-preserving framework that makes OOD generalization predictable and auditable. Our key idea is to parameterize the learned solution operator as a spectral filter hθ(λ) acting on the eigenvalues of the underlying elliptic operator, implemented via Chebyshev polynomial expansions and trained with a weak-form objective. This parameterization admits an exact decomposition of the energy-norm error into two observable components: a model-dependent spectral approximation term and a distribution-dependent spectral weighting term induced by the input. From this decomposition we derive three diagnostics: a conservative in-band supremum varepssup, a global RMS proxy varepsrms, and a sample-dependent effective metric varepseff(f). These diagnostics can be computed without access to ground-truth solutions. Through four controlled experiments, we show that varepseff(f)|f| consistently predicts energy error under in-distribution, in-band spectral shift, out-of-band tail, and compound shifts, whereas global metrics can be systematically misleading. Our framework shifts OOD assessment of neural operators from black-box benchmarking to operator-structure diagnostics, providing a practical route to auditable scientific machine learning.