mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Knowledge-Graph-Augmented Chronos-2 for HEC-RAS Surrogate Forecasting

arXiv 2609.21381 ↗First posted 18 Sep 2026cs.LG cs.AIcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

We investigate whether coupling a time-series foundation model to hydraulic project knowledge improves surrogate forecasting of HEC-RAS water-surface elevation (WSE). We present KG-Chronos-2, which combines a frozen Chronos-2 predictor with exact-state residual decoding, graph-conditioned historical retrieval, and input-aligned correction. We compare the method with persistence, a residual LSTM, project-conditioned recurrent GeoFNO, a hydraulic DCRNN-style model, and frozen Chronos-2. Task-specific fitting uses the 2008 simulation. Evaluation covers 64 fixed 24-hour windows from the 2011 and 2002 simulations at 4,675 cross sections in 71 reaches on a shared geometry. KG-Chronos-2 achieves event-balanced root-mean-square error 0.246970 in native WSE units. It reduces RMSE by 14.13% relative to frozen Chronos-2, 29.38% relative to the hydraulic DCRNN-style model, and 39.54% relative to recurrent GeoFNO. The 95% hierarchical-bootstrap interval for its event-balanced RMSE difference from frozen Chronos-2 is [-0.075177, -0.016317]. KG-Chronos-2 also achieves the lowest active-window and final-lead RMSE among the six completed systems. These results support coupling a frozen temporal predictor to project knowledge for warm-start HEC-RAS forecasting on the fixed benchmark.

Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 12 of its 22 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 18 Sep 2026.

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References · 12

  1. 2020Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Knowledge-Intensive NLP Taskscited by 9,297
  2. 2014Learning Phrase Representations using RNN Encoder-Decoder for Statistical Machine Translationcited by 4,057
  3. 2020Fourier Neural Operator for Parametric Partial Differential Equationscited by 2,908
  4. 2020Knowledge Graphscited by 621
  5. 2022Fourier Neural Operator with Learned Deformations for PDEs on General Geometriescited by 427
  6. 2025Chronos-2: From Univariate to Universal Forecastingcited by 194
  7. 2024Retrieval Augmented Time Series Forecastingcited by 46
  8. 2024TimeRAF: Retrieval-Augmented Foundation model for Zero-shot Time Series Forecastingcited by 17
  9. 2025Retrieval-Augmented Foundation Models for Water Level Prediction in the Evergladescited by 3
  10. 2025Physics-Informed Neural Network Surrogate Models for River Stage Predictioncited by 2
  11. 2025Accelerating HEC-RAS: A Recurrent Neural Operator for Rapid River Forecastingcited by 2
  12. 2026Learned Response-Field Inertia Operator for HEC-RAS 2D Water-Surface Elevation Predictioncited by 1

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