Sensory Precision Inference for Multimodal Arbitration under Uncertainty

Autonomous agents operating on multisensory data cannot assume that all sensory modalities remain consistently informative. In real environments, sensory streams are frequently corrupted by noise, missing data, or inter-modal incongruence, requiring adaptive arbitration between competing sensory hypotheses. While active inference provides a principled framework for uncertainty-guided inference, the role of dynamically inferred sensory precision in generative multimodal arbitration under sensory conflict remains comparatively underexplored. We propose a multimodal perceptual inference model in which latent beliefs and modality-specific sensory precisions are jointly updated through iterative free-energy minimization. In our proposed model, sensory precision dynamics not only reflect sensory uncertainty but actively shape the evolution of latent beliefs during multimodal conflict. In addition, we introduce a learned prior over sensory precisions that induces structured, class-dependent precision patterns and influences cross-modal inference dynamics. We evaluate the model using a synthetic multimodal MNIST dataset combining visual, auditory, and tactile representations of digit classes under controlled sensory noise and inter-modal incongruence. Results show that dynamic precision inference improves reconstruction robustness under corrupted sensory evidence, supports coherent latent inference from reduced sensory evidence, and enables stable arbitration between conflicting modalities. Furthermore, learned precision priors generate interpretable precision structures that shape inference dynamics and cross-modal latent structure. These findings support sensory precision inference as a mechanistic control process for adaptive multimodal belief formation under uncertainty, highlighting precision dynamics as a computational mechanism for robust and interpretable multisensory integration.