Published Unlearning Numbers Move Per Checkpoint, and Not Because the Removed Data Survives: An Audit of 263 Released Batch-Normalized Checkpoints

An unlearning audit reads its verdict off numbers that an unlearned model and its retrained reference each publish, and both also ship batch-normalization statistics that no gradient step wrote and no release records. Refitting them on kept data at bit-identical weights moves 47 of 221 released checkpoints past the spread their own release's seeds show, several inside a method whose average does not move: what moves is the checkpoint's property, not its method's. What does the moving is not the removed data surviving in the state: exchanging kept records for removed ones inside a fixed fitting pool moves a published cell by almost nothing, while how far a checkpoint's shipped state has drifted from any refit does track it. The consequence for a published decision is real but narrow: twelve verdicts cross, four clear a measured recalibration budget, two clear it on every replicate, and a population we trained and sited near its own criterion yields none. A release should therefore name the fitting convention beside the number, on the batch-normalized vision models where this channel exists.