Wrong Prediction, Right Answer: Recovering Evidence from Collapsed LLM Sequence Scores
On the map: LLM reasoning → Test-time compute and efficient thinking
Abstract (arXiv)
When a large language model fails a reasoning task, it is often assumed to lack the underlying capability. However, this conflates a genuine absence of reasoning with a late-stage output bottleneck. We observe a consistent readout gap across diverse reasoning benchmarks: hidden-state probes successfully decode correct answers even when native sequence scoring completely collapses due to structural biases. To test whether instance-specific logic survives this collapse, we introduce a diagnostic protocol using a minimal, target-label-free additive correction. Fitting just two parameters on as few as 25 unlabeled examples recovers 9--34 accuracy points for Qwen3.5 models, transferring successfully to OLMo-2-1B and Llama-3.1-8B. Crucially, these recovered decisions persist on hard instances unresolved by simple lexical overlap and significantly exceed count-preserving permutation baselines. Our results show that many apparent zero-shot reasoning deficits are expression failures masking intact internal logic, urging a narrower interpretation of benchmark evaluations.
Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 13 Oct 2026). Placed in Test-time compute and efficient thinking, one of 17 directions in LLM reasoning. Builds on 26 of its 34 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 31 Aug 2026.
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References · 26
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14 more
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- 2025Lost at the Beginning of Reasoning
- 2026Correct Chains, Wrong Answers: Dissociating Reasoning from Output in LLM Logic
- 2026Dissecting Failure Dynamics in Large Language Model Reasoning
- 2025CodeCrash: Exposing LLM Fragility to Misleading Natural Language in Code Reasoning
- 2026Fragile Reasoning: A Mechanistic Analysis of LLM Sensitivity to Meaning-Preserving Perturbations
- 2026Reasoning Shift: How Context Silently Shortens LLM Reasoning