Frequency-aware forecasting for short-term typhoon gust prediction
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Abstract (arXiv)
Accurate gust forecasting under typhoon conditions remains challenging due to the highly non-stationary and multi-scale characteristics of extreme wind fluctuations. Existing deep learning models often struggle to simultaneously capture long-term trends and rapid local variations, resulting in degraded performance during extreme events. We propose WDANet, a frequency-aware forecasting framework that integrates stationary wavelet decomposition, a Feature-wise Linear Modulation (FiLM) strategy, and a dual-branch encoder-decoder architecture, enabling separate modeling of trend and fluctuation components. Taking the offshore regions of the Western Pacific in China as an example, we conduct fine-grid wind gust prediction research. The results demonstrate that WDANet shows advantages for short lead times under the experimental setting across a 24-h forecasting horizon and achieves higher prediction accuracy than ECMWF-HRES within the first 6 h. During extreme wind events, WDANet more accurately captures gust peaks and attains the best RMSE and MAE performance. These results highlight its potential for offshore wind power operation, disaster warning, and risk mitigation.
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References · 8
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- 2020Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecastingcited by 2,169
- 2022A Time Series is Worth 64 Words: Long-term Forecasting with Transformerscited by 2,039
- 2021Autoformer: Decomposition Transformers with Auto-Correlation for Long-Term Series Forecastingcited by 1,676
- 2022Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?cited by 1,424
- 2022TimesNet: Temporal 2D-Variation Modeling for General Time Series Analysiscited by 1,058
- 2023iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecastingcited by 931
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