ConceptTS: LLM-Guided Concept Bottlenecks for Interpretable Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting
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Abstract (arXiv)
State-of-the-art multivariate time-series forecasters can model complex temporal and cross-variable dependencies, yet their opaque representations provide limited insight into why a particular forecast is produced. This lack of transparency restricts their use in settings where practitioners must understand and assess the factors underlying a prediction. We introduce ConceptTS, an interpretable forecasting framework that organizes its predictions around named, human-readable concepts. ConceptTS uses a large language model to propose task-relevant concepts and generate executable labeling rules, translating the language model's domain knowledge into direct supervision without costly manual concept annotation. The proposed concepts are organized into three complementary bottlenecks that describe the historical context, local forecast intervals, and the full forecast horizon. A shared decoder combines representations derived from their predicted activations to construct the forecast, making the model's decision process explicit and supporting direct concept-level interventions. Experiments on the Beijing Multi-Site Air Quality dataset show that ConceptTS achieves accuracy competitive with strong black-box baselines while producing semantically meaningful concept activations.
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References · 16
- 2016XGBoost: A Scalable Tree Boosting Systemcited by 5,166
- 2020Informer: Beyond Efficient Transformer for Long Sequence Time-Series Forecastingcited by 2,169
- 2022Are Transformers Effective for Time Series Forecasting?cited by 1,424
- 2020Concept Bottleneck Modelscited by 1,032
- 2017DeepAR: Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networkscited by 1,013
- 2023iTransformer: Inverted Transformers Are Effective for Time Series Forecastingcited by 931
- 2019Temporal Fusion Transformers for Interpretable Multi-horizon Time Series Forecastingcited by 761
- 2022Language in a Bottle: Language Model Guided Concept Bottlenecks for Interpretable Image Classificationcited by 312
- 2024TimeXer: Empowering Transformers for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variablescited by 248
- 2024Deep Time Series Models: A Comprehensive Survey and Benchmarkcited by 197
- 2024Concept Bottleneck Large Language Modelscited by 43
- 2024TimeX++: Learning Time-Series Explanations with Information Bottleneckcited by 33
4 more
- 2023Interpretation of Time-Series Deep Models: A Surveycited by 15
- 2021MTV: Visual Analytics for Detecting, Investigating, and Annotating Anomalies in Multivariate Time Seriescited by 11
- 2025ProtoTS: Learning Hierarchical Prototypes for Explainable Time Series Forecastingcited by 2
- 2025SigTime: Learning and Visually Explaining Time Series Signaturescited by 1
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