The Dynamics of Intelligence Explosions
Not on the map. Why?
Abstract (arXiv)
AI is increasingly being used to help with AI R&D. Under certain conditions this feedback loop might be able to produce an intelligence explosion, with rapidly escalating AI capabilities. I explore the mathematics of the most explosive possibilities, with an eye to understanding what drives the dynamics. I show that singular growth (towards a vertical asymptote) is harder to achieve than would be expected from recent economics-inspired modelling, and that there is an important but neglected class of growth rates that are faster than exponential but don't lead to a vertical asymptote. I draw out the generation time (the time to go around the feedback loop) as a neglected parameter that plays a pivotal role in determining the behaviour of any intelligence explosion --- one cannot have singular growth unless the generation time rapidly approaches zero.
Key facts. Cited by 1 paper in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 4 of its 34 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 14 Aug 2026.
Builds on
4 of 34 references.
References · 4
- 2016Learning to learn by gradient descent by gradient descentcited by 620
- 2025Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Software Taskscited by 156
- 2023AI capabilities can be significantly improved without expensive retrainingcited by 28
- 2026Measuring AI R&D Automationcited by 9
Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2026: 1.
1 paper.