Are You Sure You're Sure? On the Impact of Instruction Tuning on Confidence and Lexical Diversity

Instruction-tuned language models achieve strong performance across a range of generation tasks but have recently been shown to exhibit verbalized overconfidence, which may manifest in less diverse supporting rationales for incorrect answers. However, whether such overconfidence is associated with rationale consistency remains an open question. In this paper, we study whether changes in the lexical diversity of generated answer rationales accompany changes in model confidence induced by instruction tuning. We evaluate three matched base and instruction-tuned models across question-answering benchmarks and find that instruction tuning consistently increases answer confidence, despite limited changes in predictive accuracy, while degrading likelihood-based calibration. Secondly, we observe a non-uniform effect of instruction tuning on rationale diversity: cross-rationale diversity consistently decreases, whereas surface-level lexical diversity varies in both direction and magnitude across models and benchmarks. Finally, we find that these differences persist after controlling for answer selection and rationale length, confirming that confidence and rationale diversity capture distinct effects of instruction tuning.