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Predicting consumer-technology ownership without a diffusion history

arXiv 2608.12344 ↗First posted 3 Jun 2026cs.CL cs.CY stat.APcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

We test whether the perceived attributes of a consumer technology predict how widely it is owned. In a 2022 Prolific survey of US adults (n = 678), respondents rated 65 consumer technologies on six attributes. We then elicited the same ratings from two frontier language models, Anthropic Claude Opus 4.7 and OpenAI GPT-5.5. We regress ownership prevalence on four UTAUT2 acceptance attributes plus a log-age covariate with a sign-constrained penalized regression and evaluate it by holding out one technology at a time. The attribute model improves on a baseline of years-since-launch: mean absolute error falls by 17% with the human ratings, and by more with either model, most with Opus 4.7. Over the short 2022-to-2025 window, where ownership moved little, the same attributes do not improve on a no-change baseline. We set out the limitations of the approach, including the possibility that language-model ratings reflect prior knowledge of these technologies rather than independent attribute reasoning. We include a deployment illustration: 2027 ownership predictions for eleven products launched in 2025 and 2026.

Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 2 of its 21 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 3 Jun 2026.

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References · 2

  1. 2026Cold-Start Forecasting of New Product Life-Cycles via Conditional Diffusion Modelscited by 1
  2. 2026Can LLMs Think Like Consumers? Benchmarking Crowd-Level Reaction Reconstruction with ConsumerSimBenchcited by 1

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