ARC: Augmented-Rank Conformalization for Changepoint Localization --- Finite-Sample Validity and Distribution-Robust Efficiency
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Abstract (arXiv)
Conformal changepoint localization turns any score into a confidence set for the changepoint with finite-sample coverage. Coverage is universal; efficiency is not. The oracle score is a likelihood ratio, so practical scores estimate density ratios, and set length deteriorates under heavy tails, skewness, and distribution shift, where no length guarantee applies. We propose ARC (Augmented-Rank Conformalization), a family of scores depending on the data only through within-segment ranks: rank-CUSUM location and scale channels, their fixed combinations, and a lightweight neural score frozen after synthetic training. Every ARC score inherits finite-sample coverage for every frozen weight configuration, including random initialization and mistraining. The main result is an efficiency transfer theorem: the entire ARC confidence set is almost surely invariant under strictly increasing marginal transforms, so the set length distribution depends on the data pair only through its rank structure, and lengths certified once hold verbatim across its monotone orbit, whereas a plug-in score's length changes with every re-expression. Across different rank structures lengths do change, and are reported as such. Classical rank-test theory positions ARC as targeting the optimal invariant score at bounded cost. Simulations confirm nominal coverage for all scores, including sabotaged networks, identical sets under monotone transforms where plug-in scores inflate, and smooth degradation where plug-in sets become vacuous; on the well-log benchmark ARC localizes annotated shifts to three to five candidates and flags misfit by an empty set. Two boundaries are stated rather than hidden: serial dependence destroys exactness, and trend-type alternatives lie outside the piecewise-exchangeable model.
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References · 21
- 2020An Evaluation of Change Point Detection Algorithmscited by 63
- 2019Testing for a Change in Mean After Changepoint Detectioncited by 26
- 2013Multiscale Change-Point Inferencecited by 13
- 2016Narrowest-Over-Threshold Detection of Multiple Change-points and Change-point-like Featurescited by 13
- 2016Changepoint Detection in the Presence of Outlierscited by 9
- 2025Offline changepoint localization using a matrix of conformal p-valuescited by 8
- 2022Online Kernel CUSUM for Change-Point Detectioncited by 7
- 2025Post-detection inference for sequential changepoint localizationcited by 5
- 2025Theoretical guarantees for change localization using conformal p-valuescited by 5
- 2023Robust mean change point testing in high-dimensional data with heavy tailscited by 3
- 2026Distribution-free changepoint localization after sequential change detectioncited by 3
- 2020Narrowest Significance Pursuit: inference for multiple change-points in linear modelscited by 2
9 more
- 2023Online Detection of Changes in Moment-Based Projections: When to Retrain Deep Learners or Update Portfolios?cited by 2
- 2024TUNE: Algorithm-Agnostic Inference after Changepoint Detectioncited by 2
- 2025ART: Distribution-Free and Model-Agnostic Changepoint Detection with Finite-Sample Guaranteescited by 2
- 2025Sequential Change Point Detection with FDR Control in Reconfigurable Sensor Networkscited by 2
- 2026Nonparametric Multi Change Point Detection for Markov Chains via Adaptive Clusteringcited by 2
- 2026Post Hoc Inference for Component Attribution in Multivariate Change-Point Detectioncited by 2
- 2026Beyond Euclidean Summaries: Online Change Point Detection for Distribution-Valued Datacited by 1
- 2026Change-Point Detection for Object-valued Time Seriescited by 1
- 2026Change-Aware Self-Adaptive AI-Aided Kalman Filters With Neural Change Point Detectioncited by 1
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