Why Study Emergent Behavior When You Can Regulate It? Aligning Multi-Agent Systems with Reward Prediction

Multi-agent simulations are widely used to study complex social and ecological systems, where rich and often unexpected emergent behaviors arise from local interactions. A large body of prior work has focused on analyzing such emergent dynamics across domains. In this paper, we move beyond analyzing emergent behavior and introduce a learning-based mechanism for actively shaping it via social reward modeling. We introduce Multi-Agent Reward Prediction (MARP), a simple framework that extends preference-based reward modeling to multi-agent reinforcement learning. While the framework is designed to be applicable across multi-agent settings, the present empirical validation is limited to a single environment, and we therefore present MARP as a proof of concept within the studied domain. Rather than relying on handcrafted rewards, MARP learns a shared reward model from episode-level evaluations of collective outcomes, enabling decentralized agents to align their behavior with global social objectives. We study MARP in the Harvest Game, a canonical sequential social dilemma modeling common-pool resource management and related real-world challenges. Our results show that MARP can be tuned to produce behavior that is more closely aligned with target social metrics than standard reward-based baselines, while the learned reward model captures subtle environmental structure without explicit programming. Crucially, MARP supports multiple and composite social objectives within a single training regime. By modifying only the high-level evaluation metric, the same framework seamlessly aligns agent behavior with diverse goals, including sustainability, equality, and peace, as well as combinations of individual and group-level objectives. These findings demonstrate that emergent multi-agent behavior can be treated not only as a phenomenon to study, but as a target of principled, data-driven regulation.