mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Uncertainty-guided active learning for surrogate prediction of stream-finishing wear fields

arXiv 2608.00593 ↗First posted 1 Aug 2026cond-mat.mtrl-sci cs.LG physics.data-ancited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

In stream finishing, the wear experienced by a workpiece depends strongly on its orientation within the rotating abrasive media. Determining suitable orientations to achieve uniform wear requires evaluating the wear-rate field over all feasible orientations. Although the discrete element method (DEM) accurately resolves particle interactions, simulating hundreds of feasible orientations for a new geometry is computationally expensive. We present an uncertainty-guided surrogate framework that predicts, directly from geometry, the three fields governing erosion: per-triangle normal impact velocity, tangential impact velocity, and particle impact flux. These fields are combined through the Finnie wear model to reconstruct the wear-rate distribution. The surrogate employs a deep ensemble whose disagreement estimates epistemic uncertainty, enabling an active-learning strategy that selectively performs DEM simulations for the most uncertain orientations. Trained using only 13% of the 696 feasible orientations, the surrogate achieves Spearman rank correlations of 0.93, 0.89, and 0.93 for the normal impact velocity, tangential impact velocity, and particle impact flux, respectively. Moreover, the predicted uncertainty is well calibrated, reliably anticipating prediction error and the fidelity of the reconstructed wear field, which matches DEM with a Spearman rank correlation of up to 0.97 for low-uncertainty orientations and degrades in a controlled manner as uncertainty increases.

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References · 7

  1. 2015Dropout as a Bayesian Approximation: Representing Model Uncertainty in Deep Learningcited by 4,416
  2. 2016Simple and Scalable Predictive Uncertainty Estimation using Deep Ensemblescited by 3,888
  3. 2019Can You Trust Your Model's Uncertainty? Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty Under Dataset Shiftcited by 1,274
  4. 2022Out-of-Distribution Detection with Deep Nearest Neighborscited by 596
  5. 2015Weight Uncertainty in Neural Networkscited by 554
  6. 2019Deep Ensembles: A Loss Landscape Perspectivecited by 438
  7. 2019Physics-Guided Architecture (PGA) of Neural Networks for Quantifying Uncertainty in Lake Temperature Modelingcited by 26

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