mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Interventional Score Geometry for Causal Inference

arXiv 2607.21914 ↗First posted 24 Jul 2026stat.ME cs.AI econ.EMcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

Let p(x) be the joint density of variables X, and let psi(x)=nablaxlog p(x) be its score field. Geometry constructed from p and psi alone cannot identify causal direction: structural models with the same observational distribution have the same score geometry. I develop an interventional analogue. A hard intervention operatornamedo(Xk=xi) does not merely reweight the joint law; it restricts the distribution to the submanifold xk=xi. Its score should therefore be defined on the remaining d-1 free coordinates. I define causal influence Xkrightsquigarrow Xj as variation of the interventional marginal distribution of Xj with xi, and show that the corresponding derivative of the marginal interventional score gives a local sufficient condition for influence. Projecting the observational score onto admissible intervention directions does not generally recover causal response: two models may share the same observational score and admissible set yet respond differently. I therefore introduce an interventional response field supplied by structural information. A causal metric is defined as the Fisher information metric on a family of interventions with a common target, avoiding ill-posed comparisons across targets. The framework yields a geometric dictionary for randomized trials, instrumental variables, and conditional-independence designs, clarifying what each does and does not identify. A bivariate Gaussian example gives two models with the same observational score but different interventional score derivatives. The framework organizes relations among designs, interventions, and score fields, but adds no identification beyond the underlying assumptions. In Pearl's Ladder of Causation, observational score geometry belongs to association, intervention-indexed score fields to intervention, and unit-level counterfactual geometry is left for future work.

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References · 4

  1. 2019Generative Modeling by Estimating Gradients of the Data Distributioncited by 4,101
  2. 2017Meta-learners for Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Machine Learningcited by 478
  3. 2017Quasi-Oracle Estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effectscited by 332
  4. 2020On Geometry of Information Flow for Causal Inferencecited by 4

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