FrED: External Data Influence Estimation via Domain Knowledge Graph Grounding

The rapid deployment of generative AI has amplified the critical need for Training Data Attribution to ensure transparency and accountability. However, current parametric approaches require computationally prohibitive access to model weights, while similarity-based methods ignore deep structural context. We propose a novel probabilistic framework that operates entirely in a black-box setting. Our method fuses continuous feature similarities with discrete, domain-specific Knowledge Graphs (KGs). This approach ensures the attribution is grounded in structural reality, explicitly rewarding highly specific historical samples while preventing generic background data from dominating the results. We evaluate our framework across two distinct domains where linking outputs to data and domain context is inherently complex: abstract artistic image synthesis and high-dimensional physical weather forecasting. Extensive benchmarking demonstrates the robust efficacy of our approach. In the artistic domain, it achieves a strong Linear Datamodeling Score that exceeds standard black-box similarity baselines, while closing much of the gap to gradient-based estimators. We additionally present a cross-domain feasibility case study in environmental forecasting, where we use domain KGs to retrieve physically consistent historical analogs for regional flood forecasts, improving geographic localisation over a latent-only baseline. Operating entirely without internal model access, our approach provides an efficient, interpretable mechanism for post-hoc influence analysis and domain-grounded retrieval.