Verifier-First Evaluation of Agentic LLMs for Infrastructure-as-Code Generation

Infrastructure-as-Code (IaC) generation from natural language requires satisfying provider schemas, dependency planning, and organizational policy constraints, not merely producing syntactically plausible configurations. We present a verifier-first empirical study of seven agentic strategies for Terraform generation evaluated on IaC-Eval v2, a modernized 186-task AWS/Terraform benchmark with Rego v1 intent policies. Our evaluation separates failures into three verifier stages (terraform validate, terraform plan, opa eval) and applies McNemar's test with Wilson confidence intervals on all pairwise comparisons (n=186, alpha=0.05). We report five principal findings. (1) Active retrieval via ReAct agents with MCP or ChromaDB-backed RAG raises Qwen2.5-Coder 7B from 14.0% to 45.7% pass@1 (p<0.0001), primarily by reducing VALIDATE_FAIL from 144 to 66 tasks. (2) Iterative refinement with verifier feedback achieves 62.9% (Qwen 7B) and 84.4% (GPT-4o) pass@1, exhibiting binary convergence -- tasks either resolve in one retry or exhaust the budget. (3) GEPA reflective instruction optimization raises the Active RAG baseline by +7.5 pp (p=0.026) using only 80 verifier-guided rollouts, providing evidence that prompt optimizers can improve verifiable IaC generation without weight updates. (4) SIMBA teacher-free demonstration injection achieves performance equivalent to Active RAG (p=1.0) without retrieval infrastructure, but fails to address the dominant SELF_DEFINED_PROPERTY error class (50% of failures). (5) A diagnostic Rego-injection experiment shows that 79% of post-refinement OPA failures are information-gap failures resolvable when policy text is visible (p=0.016), motivating policy