Aggregation of Statistical Evidence under Exchangeability
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Abstract (arXiv)
We study aggregation of statistical evidence under unknown and potentially complex dependence using group-invariance. Building on permutation-based constructions that treat transformed datasets as exchangeable units, we aggregate evidence across statistics for each transformed dataset and calibrate the resulting aggregates across transformations. We develop a finite-sample power and adaptivity theory for this framework, together with extensions to sequential and data-dependent aggregation that preserve validity. For single-batch aggregation, which uses one collection of transformed datasets for both standardization and calibration, we show that the critical values uniformly improve on deterministic calibrations valid under arbitrary dependence, including Bonferroni correction, while adapting to the unknown dependence structure. We also introduce a sequential alpha-spending version that permits early rejection when evidence is strong, and a two-batch extension that separates standardization from calibration to accommodate learned aggregation rules and reduce computation. Applications to adaptive nonparametric testing and conformal prediction illustrate how these results sharpen existing aggregation methods.
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References · 7
- 2024Theoretical Foundations of Conformal Predictioncited by 101
- 2024Merging uncertainty sets via majority votecited by 30
- 2024Practical Kernel Tests of Conditional Independencecited by 15
- 2025A Practical Introduction to Kernel Discrepancies: MMD, HSIC & KSDcited by 13
- 2015A simpler condition for consistency of a kernel independence testcited by 10
- 2025A Unified View of Optimal Kernel Hypothesis Testingcited by 5
- 2025Cheap Permutation Testingcited by 2
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