Causal-Adversarial Probing of Clinical Covariates for Prostate MRI Grading

Deep learning models for prostate MRI-based cancer grading may encode clinical covariates that either reflect useful disease-related signal or non-generalising shortcut information, but their role is usually assumed. We propose a causal-reasoning framework for probing covariate dependence in MRI-based International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) Grade Group prediction. Rather than treating mpMRI as a direct cause of grade, we model MRI appearance and ISUP grade as observations of latent tumour pathology, and test whether candidate clinical variables act as nuisance correlates, disease-related proxies, or irrelevant covariates in the learned representation. We implement this using an adversarial framework that suppresses the decodability of individual clinical covariate at a time while preserving MRI-based grade prediction. The approach is developed and evaluated on 2,903 prostate MRI examinations, with external validation on 576 patients. We report a set of interesting and previously under-explored imaging-to-clinical-variable interactions in the context of deep learning generalisation. For examples, in binary ISUP Grade Group ≥2 classification, suppressing age, BMI, and alcohol use improved AUC by 1.23%, 0.84%, and 1.42%, respectively (all p < 0.05), suggesting reduced non-generalising covariate information; In contrast, suppressing PSA and prostate volume degraded AUC by 1.91% and 7.61% (all p < 0.001), indicating that these variables carried task-relevant signal. These findings show that adversarial covariate suppression can provide a practical representation-level analysis for distinguishing potentially harmful dependence from informative signal in prostate MRI grading models.