Generalized Neural Distributional Regression
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Abstract (arXiv)
We introduce the Generalized Neural Distributional Regression (GNDR) framework, which seamlessly embeds deep neural networks into the parameter space of classical probability distributions. To reconcile the inherent non-identifiability of deep architectures with maximum likelihood theory, we propose a two-step semi-parametric estimation procedure. By isolating the terminal prediction heads and treating the upstream network as a fixed, non-linear basis expansion, GNDR enables the extraction of analytical Fisher Information matrices. This facilitates rigorous uncertainty quantification, generating observation-specific confidence bands and tolerance intervals via the multivariate Delta method. We demonstrate the framework's versatility and superior distributional calibration across diverse data modalities, including overdispersed clinical counts, right-censored transcriptomic survival profiles under a mixture cure framework, and zero-truncated age distributions derived directly from unstructured facial images. The methodology is natively implemented in the open-source Python package textitthetaflow.
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References · 3
- 2014Adam: A Method for Stochastic Optimizationcited by 37,240
- 2017Decoupled Weight Decay Regularizationcited by 1,831
- 2020Neural Mixture Distributional Regressioncited by 4
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