Predictable GRPO: A Closed-Form Model of Training Dynamics

We develop a first-principles reduced-order model of these dynamics. Under a single mean-field assumption that summarizes the policy by its expected reward, we reduce the GRPO update to a stochastically-forced damped oscillator whose mass, damping, and stiffness are fixed in closed form by the optimizer hyperparameters together with a single measured curvature scale -- momentum supplies the inertia, off-policy lag erodes the damping, and the group size enters, to leading order, as a noise temperature. The reduction has three consequences. First, it subsumes the empirical single-exponential saturation law as its overdamped limit, recasting the fitted plateau, timescale, and size exponent as the fixed point, inverse stiffness, and curvature-scaling exponent of the underlying potential, and adding, through the retained inertial term, the slow-start phase the single exponential cannot represent. Second, it yields predictions tied to independently measurable quantities rather than fitted ones: group-size invariance of the deterministic trajectory with a 1/G stationary fluctuation, a sharp stability threshold in the refresh interval, and an overdamped-to-oscillatory transition. Third, it furnishes diagnostics that separate failure modes a reward curve alone conflates -- reward hacking, advantage degeneracy, policy concentration, and dynamical instability. Across three models and two group sizes, the closed-form trajectory fits training reward to R2 ≥ 0.91 and the mean trajectory is group-size invariant to leading order -- on both the reward curve and out-of-distribution transfer to eight math benchmarks -- while the within-group reward spread retains a residual G-dependence that the leading-order temperature picture does not capture.