Improved Multi-Dimensional Forecasting for Swap Regret

We study the problem of forecasting for an arbitrary number of downstream agents with unknown objectives, each of whom best responds to the forecaster's predictions. We seek a single forecaster that guarantees sublinear swap regret for all downstream agents simultaneously. For two-dimensional outcome spaces, we give a polynomial time algorithm that guarantees tildeO(√kT) swap regret for any downstream agent with k actions. This improves over the previously known bound of tildeO(kT5/8) and avoids the exponential in T runtime of prior algorithms in this setting. Our algorithm extends nicely to other low dimensional environments, retaining tildeO(√T) downstream swap regret while the exponent of k in the regret bound and the exponent of T in the running time both grow with dimension. For arbitrary dimension d, we give a forecasting algorithm that guarantees tildeO(d√kT) swap regret, assuming the forecaster knows an upper bound k on the number of actions available to any downstream agent, albeit with a much longer runtime. This improves upon previous high dimensional guarantees that had tildeO(T2/3) dependence and required additional behavioral assumptions.