Noise-Debiased Thermodynamic Variance for Local Learning Coefficient Probes

Local learning coefficient (LLC) probes offer a singularity-aware view of neural-network training, but mean-energy methods require a local loss baseline that is ambiguous at transient checkpoints. Thermodynamic variance avoids this input; under mini-batch evaluation, however, direct variance mixes cross-state loss fluctuations with same-state noise. We operationalize this route with the Shift-Invariant Variance Estimator (SIVE), which estimates and subtracts the latter component using repeated evaluations. Conditional on any fixed retained path, unclipped SIVE is unbiased for noiseless path variance without requiring MCMC stationarity. The finite-scale diagnostic remains indexed by localization scale h---even a locally linear loss has tether-dependent variance---while interpretation as a Real Log Canonical Threshold (RLCT) requires additional stationary low-temperature conditions. Toy experiments recover calibrated finite-scale targets. At the primary localization scale, all five MNIST MLP trajectories exhibit a mid-training trough followed by a rebound in SIVE, while Raw Variance decreases from Epoch 40 to 100 in every trajectory. Across four localization scales, the joint early-drop/late-rise criterion is met in 19 of 20 trajectory--scale pairs. At Epoch 40, the estimated observation-noise correction accounts for 77.5% of Raw Variance. Same-state debiasing thus reveals a reproducible turning structure masked by time-varying observation noise.