Design a Reliable LLM-Integrated Interface for Mortality Forecasting
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Abstract (arXiv)
Mortality forecasting plays an important role in actuarial and policy decision-making, but its implementation remains technically complex and inaccessible to non-expert users. This project proposes a reliable large language model (LLM)-integrated interface that improves usability while maintaining statistical power. The LLM is designed as a constrained orchestration layer that translates natural-language inputs into structured configurations for a deterministic forecasting pipeline. A three-phase methodology is employed to ensure accuracy, usability, and transparency. First, a baseline pipeline is implemented using the CoMoMo package, reproducing established mortality forecasting results. Second, the pipeline is extended to generate multi-step forecasts using rolling-origin evaluation and mean squared error (MSE). Third, a prototype interface uses a local LLM to handle users' forecasting requests in plain language. The system demonstrates that LLMs can enhance accessibility without compromising reproducibility, transparency, or actuarial validity in high-stakes analytical workflows.
Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 3 of its 13 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 4 Jun 2026.
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References · 3
- 2020Language Models are Few-Shot Learnerscited by 32,419
- 2023Sparks of Artificial General Intelligence: Early experiments with GPT-4cited by 2,592
- 2020Towards Faithfully Interpretable NLP Systems: How should we define and evaluate faithfulness?cited by 599
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