mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Variance Reduction for Heavy-Tailed Monetization Metrics in Ranking Experiments via Post-Stratification

arXiv 2606.04110 ↗First posted 2 Jun 2026cs.LG stat.MLcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

Online evaluation of ranking and retrieval systems often relies on downstream monetization metrics such as app revenue or creator earnings. These metrics are typically heavy-tailed, with a small fraction of users dominating both mean and variance, leading to low statistical power and unreliable conclusions in A/B experiments -- especially under limited traffic. We present a practical framework for variance reduction in online experiments by combining post-stratification with CUPED. Our approach leverages pre-experiment covariates to improve the sensitivity of monetization experiments without requiring additional traffic. Deployed at ShareChat across ranking-driven monetization experiments, the method substantially reduces variance and improves decision stability, achieving equivalent statistical confidence with ~45% less traffic than standard metrics. We further discuss practical design choices, guardrails, and limitations, providing guidance on when post-stratification is appropriate for real-world information retrieval and Recommendation systems.

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References · 2

  1. 2024Powerful A/B-Testing Metrics and Where to Find Themcited by 3
  2. 2025t-Testing the Waters: Empirically Validating Assumptions for Reliable A/B-Testingcited by 3

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