Non-Vacuous Certification of Transport MCMC via Oscillation-Controlled Normalizing Flows

Transport MCMC trains a normalizing flow to precondition Metropolis--Hastings proposals, achieving high empirical efficiency on challenging posteriors; yet no prior work produces a numerically non-vacuous, rigorous spectral-gap bound for such samplers. We establish the first such bounds. For independence MH on the banana family we certify (γ^ast = 0.828) at (D = 2) (covering in the original space) and (γ^ast ≥ 7.6× 10-4) at (D = 5) (covering in an analytically unwarped Gaussian space with a grid-certified gradient bound under the stated numerical Lipschitz certification), both rigorous at 95% confidence. The framework rests on three pillars: (i) spectral normalization with reduced scale clips constrains the flow Lipschitz constant from (1047) to (104); (ii) a coverage-based empirical oscillation bound replaces the vacuous analytical bound with a data-dependent certificate; and (iii) oscillation-regularised training cuts the empirical oscillation by 60--90% at no cost to density fit, extending practical certificates through (D = 20) ((γ^ast ≥ 1.7× 10-4)). Tests on four further targets (Gaussian mixture, shear-building, Neal's funnel, Bayesian logistic regression) identify three precise barriers: boundary curvature, target stiffness, and tail-coverage mismatch. An affine-vs-spline comparison shows that simpler architectures yield tighter certificates at identical NLL, inverting the usual expressiveness hierarchy.