mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Shared Keyboard: An improved Bayesian design for phase I clinical trials via Beta kernel process

arXiv 2605.25043 ↗First posted 24 May 2026stat.AP stat.MLcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

Model-assisted interval designs such as the Keyboard design are transparent and easy to implement in phase I oncology trials. However, interim decisions based solely on data from the current dose may overlook informative signals from neighbouring doses, leading to unnecessary escalation or de-escalation. We propose the shared Keyboard design, a Bayesian model-assisted design that replaces the independent beta--binomial updating scheme at each dose with a posterior induced by a Beta kernel process using kernel-weighted pseudo-counts. The design preserves the decision structure of the Keyboard design while enabling controlled borrowing across nearby doses. To prioritise overdose control, we propose an asymmetric kernel that assigns greater weight to toxicities observed at higher doses during escalation. We further extend the proposed design to accommodate adaptive dose insertion when the initial dose grid is inadequate and time-to-event outcomes when late-onset toxicities are present. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate substantial improvements in both accuracy and safety for identifying the maximum tolerated dose. In settings involving dose insertion, the proposed design identifies inserted target doses more effectively than adaptive dose modification while maintaining a comparable modification rate.

Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 5 of its 43 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 24 May 2026.

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References · 5

  1. 2021Improving the Performance of Bayesian Logistic Regression Model with Overdose Control in Oncology Dose-Finding Studiescited by 2
  2. 2019The i3+3 Design for Phase I Clinical Trialscited by 1
  3. 2020Incorporating historical information to improve phase I clinical trial designscited by 1
  4. 2020Statistical Frameworks for Oncology Dose-Finding Designs with Late-Onset Toxicities: A Reviewcited by 1
  5. 2025BKP: An R Package for Beta Kernel Process Modelingcited by 1

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