AERIC: Anticipatory Hidden-State Monitoring for Implicit Harmful Dialogue

Current language models create two safety challenges: risk must be detected early enough to avoid exposing harmful continuation, and the harmfulness itself may be implicit rather than signaled by overtly toxic text. Existing response-level guards are strong at judging completed text, and native streaming guards move closer to token time, but both settings leave open whether a lightweight monitor can anticipate implicit harmful drift from the generator's own internal trajectory. We study anticipatory same-pass monitoring, where a safety monitor may read hidden states produced during ordinary decoding but may not invoke an additional forward pass through the base model. We introduce AERIC, a transfer-oriented hidden-state approach for implicit harmful dialogue that combines short-horizon hazard forecasting, support-sensitive suppression, and prompt-conditioned residual scoring under a same-pass exponential moving average decision rule. The default linear monitor contains only 387 trainable head parameters. Against Qwen3GuardStream-4B on balanced benchmarks, AERIC improves AUROC from 0.6830 to 0.7143 on DiaSafety and from 0.8219 to 0.8582 on Harmful Advice. For promptlevel trigger benchmarks, we calibrate the AERIC threshold by a source-side safe-budget rule that maximizes trigger coverage while constraining the safe-trigger rate to at most 10%. Under that rule, trigger@64 reaches 0.6438 and 0.4656 on HarmBench DirectRequest and 0.6849 and 0.7363 on SocialHarmBench for Qwen and Gemma, respectively, withholding between 23.53 and 41.86 answer tokens on average. Same-pass deployment is also efficient: on a 63-prompt harmfulprompt fixed-generation benchmark aggregated over HarmBench DirectRequest and SocialHarmBench under Qwen3-8B, the monitor increases mean latency by only 2.34%, whereas Qwen3Guard-Stream-4B increases it by 79.40%.