mlsanityData to 14 Oct 2026

Can LLMs Emulate Human Belief Dynamics?

arXiv 2605.18781 ↗First posted 5 May 2026cs.SI cs.AI cs.CYcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

Can LLMs simulate how humans form and change beliefs in social networks? We put this to the test by replicating an established study on belief dynamics, evaluating 12 LLMs across multiple model families and parameter sizes. The answer is a clear no, and in systematic ways. LLMs fail to capture initial human belief distributions and tend to be overall more conformist than humans, shifting their responses to align with those around them. They also take a nuanced approach to emulating human homophilic tendencies within networks. Our findings carry a double payoff: they highlight fundamental properties of LLM behavior, and they raise a sharp warning against deploying LLMs as human proxies in social simulations.

Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 21 of its 41 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 5 May 2026.

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References · 21

  1. 2024The Llama 3 Herd of Modelscited by 14,715
  2. 2025Qwen3 Technical Reportcited by 8,820
  3. 2023Generative Agents: Interactive Simulacra of Human Behaviorcited by 3,568
  4. 2025Gemma 3 Technical Reportcited by 1,824
  5. 2025gpt-oss-120b & gpt-oss-20b Model Cardcited by 1,386
  6. 2023Towards Understanding Sycophancy in Language Modelscited by 1,040
  7. 2022Out of One, Many: Using Language Models to Simulate Human Samplescited by 752
  8. 2023Simulating Opinion Dynamics with Networks of LLM-based Agentscited by 154
  9. 2024Hidden Persuaders: LLMs' Political Leaning and Their Influence on Voterscited by 71
  10. 2025When Truth Is Overridden: Uncovering the Internal Origins of Sycophancy in Large Language Modelscited by 50
  11. 2024Beyond Demographics: Aligning Role-playing LLM-based Agents Using Human Belief Networkscited by 39
  12. 2025How Far are LLMs from Being Our Digital Twins? A Benchmark for Persona-Based Behavior Chain Simulationcited by 22
9 more
  1. 2025Simulating Rumor Spreading in Social Networks using LLM Agentscited by 16
  2. 2025Epistemic Alignment: A Mediating Framework for User-LLM Knowledge Deliverycited by 14
  3. 2025Persona-Assigned Large Language Models Exhibit Human-Like Motivated Reasoningcited by 13
  4. 2026Replicating Human Motivated Reasoning Studies with LLMscited by 5
  5. 2022Measuring Belief Dynamics on Twittercited by 3
  6. 2025Modeling Motivated Reasoning in Law: Evaluating Strategic Role Conditioning in LLM Summarizationcited by 3
  7. 2021Using a Cognitive Network Model of Moral and Social Beliefs to Explain Belief Changecited by 2
  8. 2024Exploring the Role of Randomization on Belief Rigidity in Online Social Networkscited by 2
  9. 2025Personalized Large Language Models Can Increase the Belief Accuracy of Social Networkscited by 1

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