PULSE: Generative Phase Evolution for Non-Stationary Time Series Forecasting
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Abstract (arXiv)
Time series forecasting under non-stationarity faces a fundamental tension between capturing stable representations and adapting to distribution shifts. Existing methods implicitly rely on static historical assumptions, leading to a critical failure mode we term Phase Amnesia, where models become blind to the evolving global context. To resolve this, we formalize non-stationary dynamics through three physical hypotheses: wold decomposition, dynamical phase evolution, and heteroscedastic manifold generation. These principles inspire PULSE, a physics-informed, plug-and-play framework adopting a Disentangle--Evolve--Simulate design philosophy. Specifically, PULSE utilizes phase-anchored disentanglement to resolve optimization interference caused by dominant trends, employs a Phase Router to actively generate future trajectories, and introduces Statistic-Aware Mixup (SAM) to ensure robustness against out-of-distribution volatility. Empirically, PULSE enables a simple MLP backbone to achieve state-of-the-art or highly competitive performance across 12 real-world benchmarks. This validates that a correct physics-informed inductive bias is far more critical than raw architectural complexity for non-stationary forecasting. The code is available at: https://github.com/Gemost/PULSE.
Key facts. Cited by 2 papers in the map (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 27 of its 47 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 16 May 2026.
Builds on
27 of 47 references.
References · 27
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15 more
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Citing papers per year: 2026: 2.
2 papers.