mlsanityData to 7 Oct 2026

Active Multiple-Prediction-Powered Inference

arXiv 2605.08429 ↗First posted 8 May 2026stat.ML cs.LG stat.MEcited by 0

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Abstract (arXiv)

Post-deployment monitoring of healthcare AI requires statistically valid, label-efficient methods, but gold-standard labels from clinician chart review are expensive. Prediction-powered inference (PPI) and active statistical inference (ASI) reduce label cost by combining a small labeled sample with abundant model predictions, but both are restricted to a single predictor, a poor fit for modern clinical pipelines that have multiple predictors of differing cost and accuracy available at inference time. We propose Active Multiple-Prediction-Powered Inference (AM-PPI), which routes each instance to a cost-appropriate predictor subset, samples gold-standard labels in proportion to the chosen subset's residual uncertainty, and reweights predictions to minimize estimator variance, all under a single deployment-time budget. AM-PPI generalizes ASI to leverage multiple predictors and extends Multiple-PPI from global per-predictor allocation to per-instance adaptive routing. We derive closed-form Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions for all three decisions and prove, via biconvexity and strong duality, that the resulting fixed point is a global optimum despite the joint problem being non-jointly-convex. We establish asymptotic normality with valid coverage, minimum-variance unbiasedness within the linear-prediction augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) class, and a closed-form criterion identifying when multiple predictors help. On synthetic data and three healthcare monitoring tasks, AM-PPI produces 10 to 40 percent narrower confidence intervals (CIs) than single-predictor ASI in the budget regime where routing matters, and matches the better baseline elsewhere.

Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 13 of its 30 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 8 May 2026.

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References · 13

  1. 2021Convex optimizationcited by 2,479
  2. 2023Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 214
  3. 2022Leveraging Unlabeled Data to Predict Out-of-Distribution Performancecited by 141
  4. 2023PPI++: Efficient Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 103
  5. 2024Stratified Prediction-Powered Inference for Hybrid Language Model Evaluationcited by 24
  6. 2021Reliable and Trustworthy Machine Learning for Health Using Dataset Shift Detectioncited by 21
  7. 2022Estimating and Explaining Model Performance When Both Covariates and Labels Shiftcited by 19
  8. 2025VeriFact: Verifying Facts in LLM-Generated Clinical Text with Electronic Health Recordscited by 17
  9. 2024Sequential Harmful Shift Detection Without Labelscited by 9
  10. 2024Task-Agnostic Machine-Learning-Assisted Inferencecited by 8
  11. 2025Statistically Valid Post-Deployment Monitoring Should Be Standard for AI-Based Digital Healthcited by 8
  12. 2025Anytime-valid, Bayes-assisted, Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 7
1 more
  1. 2025Robust Sampling for Active Statistical Inferencecited by 5

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