Active Multiple-Prediction-Powered Inference
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Abstract (arXiv)
Post-deployment monitoring of healthcare AI requires statistically valid, label-efficient methods, but gold-standard labels from clinician chart review are expensive. Prediction-powered inference (PPI) and active statistical inference (ASI) reduce label cost by combining a small labeled sample with abundant model predictions, but both are restricted to a single predictor, a poor fit for modern clinical pipelines that have multiple predictors of differing cost and accuracy available at inference time. We propose Active Multiple-Prediction-Powered Inference (AM-PPI), which routes each instance to a cost-appropriate predictor subset, samples gold-standard labels in proportion to the chosen subset's residual uncertainty, and reweights predictions to minimize estimator variance, all under a single deployment-time budget. AM-PPI generalizes ASI to leverage multiple predictors and extends Multiple-PPI from global per-predictor allocation to per-instance adaptive routing. We derive closed-form Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions for all three decisions and prove, via biconvexity and strong duality, that the resulting fixed point is a global optimum despite the joint problem being non-jointly-convex. We establish asymptotic normality with valid coverage, minimum-variance unbiasedness within the linear-prediction augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW) class, and a closed-form criterion identifying when multiple predictors help. On synthetic data and three healthcare monitoring tasks, AM-PPI produces 10 to 40 percent narrower confidence intervals (CIs) than single-predictor ASI in the budget regime where routing matters, and matches the better baseline elsewhere.
Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 13 of its 30 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 8 May 2026.
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References · 13
- 2021Convex optimizationcited by 2,479
- 2023Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 214
- 2022Leveraging Unlabeled Data to Predict Out-of-Distribution Performancecited by 141
- 2023PPI++: Efficient Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 103
- 2024Stratified Prediction-Powered Inference for Hybrid Language Model Evaluationcited by 24
- 2021Reliable and Trustworthy Machine Learning for Health Using Dataset Shift Detectioncited by 21
- 2022Estimating and Explaining Model Performance When Both Covariates and Labels Shiftcited by 19
- 2025VeriFact: Verifying Facts in LLM-Generated Clinical Text with Electronic Health Recordscited by 17
- 2024Sequential Harmful Shift Detection Without Labelscited by 9
- 2024Task-Agnostic Machine-Learning-Assisted Inferencecited by 8
- 2025Statistically Valid Post-Deployment Monitoring Should Be Standard for AI-Based Digital Healthcited by 8
- 2025Anytime-valid, Bayes-assisted, Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 7
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- 2025Robust Sampling for Active Statistical Inferencecited by 5
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