How LLMs Detect and Correct Their Own Errors: The Role of Internal Confidence Signals
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Abstract (arXiv)
Large language models can detect their own errors and sometimes correct them without external feedback, but the underlying mechanisms remain unknown. We investigate this through the lens of second-order models of confidence from decision neuroscience. In a first-order system, confidence derives from the generation signal itself and is therefore maximal for the chosen response, precluding error detection. Second-order models posit a partially independent evaluative signal that can disagree with the committed response, providing the basis for error detection. Kumaran et al. (2026) showed that LLMs cache a confidence representation at a token immediately following the answer (i.e. post-answer newline: PANL) -- that causally drives verbal confidence and dissociates from log-probabilities. Here we test whether this PANL signal extends beyond confidence to support error detection and self-correction. Here we test whether this signal supports error detection and self-correction, deriving predictions from the second-order framework. Using a verify-then-correct paradigm, we show that: (i) verbal confidence predicts error detection far beyond token log-probabilities, ruling out a first-order account; (ii) PANL activations predict error detection beyond verbal confidence itself; and (iii) PANL predicts which errors the model can correct -- where all behavioural signals fail. Causal interventions confirm that PANL signals rescue error detection behavior when answer information is corrupted. All findings replicate across models (Gemma 3 27B and Qwen 2.5 7B) and tasks (TriviaQA and MNLI). These results reveal that LLMs naturally implement a second-order confidence architecture whose internal evaluative signal encodes not only whether an answer is likely wrong but whether the model has the knowledge to fix it.
Key facts. Cited by 3 papers in the map (data through 7 Oct 2026). Builds on 39 of its 51 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 24 Apr 2026.
Builds on
39 of 51 references.
References · 39
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27 more
- 2023Just Ask for Calibration: Strategies for Eliciting Calibrated Confidence Scores from Language Models Fine-Tuned with Human Feedbackcited by 788
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Built on by
Citing papers per year: 2026: 3.
3 papers.
- 2026Diagnosing Correctness Probes under Self-Judgement Confoundingcited by 1
- 2026Can a Model Catch Its Own Hallucinations for Free?: Label-Free Doubt Signals Hold Their Own Against a Labelled Dataset for Abstentioncited by 0
- 2026Confidence Comes from Experience: Experiential Confidence Estimation from Reasoning to Agentscited by 0
- 2026Confidence Comes from Experience: Experiential Confidence Estimation from Reasoning to Agents15 Sep 2026
- 2026Diagnosing Correctness Probes under Self-Judgement Confounding18 Jul 2026
- 2026Can a Model Catch Its Own Hallucinations for Free?: Label-Free Doubt Signals Hold Their Own Against a Labelled Dataset for Abstention19 Jun 2026