Rectification Difficulty and Optimal Sample Allocation in LLM-Augmented Surveys
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Abstract (arXiv)
Large Language Models can generate synthetic survey responses at low cost, but their accuracy varies unpredictably across questions. We study the design problem of allocating a fixed budget of human respondents across estimation tasks when cheap LLM predictions are available for every task. Our framework combines three components. First, building on Prediction-Powered Inference, we characterize a question-specific rectification difficulty that governs how quickly the estimator's variance decreases with human sample size. Second, we derive a closed-form optimal allocation rule that directs more human labels to tasks where the LLM is least reliable. Third, since rectification difficulty depends on unobserved human responses for new surveys, we propose a meta-learning approach, trained on historical data, that predicts it for entirely new tasks without pilot data. The framework extends to general M-estimation, covering regression coefficients and multinomial logit partworths for conjoint analysis. We validate the framework on two datasets spanning different domains, question types, and LLMs, showing that our approach captures 61-79% of the theoretically attainable efficiency gains, achieving 11.4% and 10.5% MSE reductions without requiring any pilot human data for the target survey.
Key facts. No citing papers in the map yet (data through 14 Oct 2026). Builds on 9 of its 51 references that are in the map. First posted on arXiv 19 Apr 2026.
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References · 9
- 2023PPI++: Efficient Prediction-Powered Inferencecited by 117
- 2025Predictions as Surrogates: Revisiting Surrogate Outcomes in the Age of AIcited by 34
- 2024Stratified Prediction-Powered Inference for Hybrid Language Model Evaluationcited by 26
- 2024Large Language Models for Market Research: A Data-augmentation Approachcited by 20
- 2025Cost-Optimal Active AI Model Evaluationcited by 19
- 2025How Many Human Survey Respondents is a Large Language Model Worth? An Uncertainty Quantification Perspectivecited by 12
- 2025LLMs Reproduce Human Purchase Intent via Semantic Similarity Elicitation of Likert Ratingscited by 12
- 2025Digital Twins as Funhouse Mirrors: Five Key Distortionscited by 11
- 2025Fine-Tune, Then Rectifycited by 7
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